Broncos (3-5) at Bills (5-4)
When: 6:15 p.m. MT, Monday
Where: Highmark Stadium
Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/ESPN, KMGH-7
Broncos-Bills series: The Broncos are 16-22-1 in 39 regular-season games dating back to 1960; the Broncos lost 48-19 in the last meeting, on Dec. 19, 2020, in Denver, and have lost three in a row to the Bills.
In the spotlight
Broncos safety Justin Simmons said it best. If Denver truly wants to make a postseason push, it has to take care of business against teams like the Buffalo Bills.
If the Broncos want to stop the Bills on Monday Night Football, they will have to contain quarterback Josh Allen, and that’s no easy task.
“(Allen) is extremely difficult to game plan against,” Simmons said. “He’s so talented with his arm that he can make all the throws.”
Allen has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league for the past five seasons. He and Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes are known for making plays that defy logic. This season, Allen has continued that narrative. He is second in touchdown passes (18) and completion percentage (71.3%).
“(Allen) has been pretty amazing. When you see him, he’s big, I mean, holy cow,” head coach Sean Payton said. “He’s impressive and he’s a sharp guy. He’s certainly earned the respect in this league and what he’s accomplished so early in his career.”
The Broncos know they will have their hands full with Allen’s arm and the talented weapons on Buffalo’s offense. But one of Denver’s biggest concerns is what Allen can do with his legs. This season, Allen has rushed for 233 yards, six touchdowns and averages 5.3 yards per carry.
Allen also has eight rushes for 10-plus yards, according to Pro Football Focus.
“Both (Allen and Mahomes) have that second act. What I mean is that ability to make you defend, instead of for three seconds, six or seven seconds,” Payton said. “The one thing when he’s healthy, besides the RPOs, there are some quarterback runs that gap you one short. So that becomes challenging.”
If there’s one weakness the Broncos could exploit, it’s Allen’s penchant for turning the ball over.
The Wyoming product’s nine interceptions this season are tied with three other QBs (Las Vegas’ Jimmy Garoppolo, New England’s Mac Jones and Washington’s Sam Howell) for most in the league. He’s also lost two fumbles, giving him the most turnovers (11) overall of any player in the NFL.
Who has the edge?
When Broncos run
Denver has found a formula for success through the run game. During the Broncos’ two-game win streak, they have rushed for 298 yards. The Bills have held opponents to under 100 yards rushing for three straight games. Edge: Broncos
When Broncos pass
Wilson has been an effective deep-ball thrower this season. He has a 121.4 passer rating when attempting passes for 20-plus yards, according to Pro Football Focus. Buffalo’s secondary has battled injuries. Cornerback Tre’Davious White suffered a season-ending torn Achilles, while safety Micah Hyde (neck/stinger) and cornerback Christian Benford (hamstring) did not practice on Thursday and Friday. Edge: Bills
When Bills run
Bills running back James Cook has rushed for a team-best 506 yards on 108 attempts. He is one yard away from tying his total from last season. Denver’s defense held the Chiefs to 62 rushing yards in Week 8, suggesting it has plugged the holes that made the Broncos the worst rush defense in the league. Edge: Even
When Bills pass
Josh Allen is fourth in passing yards (2,423) and first in quarterback rating (75.3) but has thrown the most interceptions in the league with nine. He has thrown an interception in five straight games, and the Bills are 3-4 when he throws at least one pick. The Broncos, on the other hand, have recorded six picks since Week 4. Expect cornerback Pat Surtain II to spend a ton of time shadowing Bills wideout Stefon Diggs. Edge: Bills
Special teams
The Broncos are first in punt and kick return average. Rookie Marvin Mims Jr. had a 31-yard punt return in the home win over the Chiefs. The Bills are one of five teams in the league that has allowed a punt return for a touchdown. Edge: Broncos
Coaching
Head coach Sean Payton has the Broncos on a two-game win streak and has finally been able to establish the physical run game he talked about since the offseason. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph went from fans demanding him to be fired to having the defense shut down the Chiefs in a runaway victory. Led by head coach Sean McDermott, the Bills started the season 3-1 and averaged 34.7 points per game. Since then, Buffalo is 2-3 and has lost two of its last three contests. Still, the Bills are a top-five offense in the league and have held opponents to under 20 points per game this season. Edge: Bills
Tale of the tape
| Broncos | Bills | |
|---|---|---|
| Total offense | 302.1 (22nd) | 370.2 (5th) |
| Rush offense | 116.8 (11th) | 108.1 (16th) |
| Pass offense | 185.4 (27th) | 262.1 (5th) |
| Points per game | 21.5 (16th) | 26.7 (5th) |
| Total Defense | 405.9 (32nd) | 334 (18th) |
| Run defense | 154.1 (32nd) | 114.4 (18th) |
| Pass defense | 251.8 (27th) | 219.6 (14th) |
| Points allowed | 28.3 (32nd) | 17.8 (5th) |
By the numbers
2: Quarterback hits allowed by center Lloyd Cushenberry III this season.
834: Receiving yards Stefon Diggs has this season, ranking third in the NFL.
16: Touchdowns the Broncos have allowed in the red zone.
26.7: Percentage of times Denver blitzes per drop-back.
Bet on it
Line: Bills -7.5
Don’t sleep on the Broncos. The odds are stacked against them, playing on Monday Night Football in one of the toughest places to play in the NFL. But Denver has found its rhythm and will keep this momentum going.
Prop bet: Over/under 47
Take the under. The Bills have averaged 20.3 points in their last four games, and Denver’s defense has been solid as of late.
Post predictions
Parker Gabriel, beat writer: Bills 27, Broncos 20
Denver’s got the feel-goods coming off a bye week, and Buffalo’s been erratic. Even still, a win in prime time on the road against a team that’s more talented and has reached the point where it can’t do too much more messing around without threatening its playoff status is a tall order. Too tall, in this case. Von Miller & Co. get the job done.
Ryan McFadden, beat writer: Broncos 23, Bills 20
Let’s get wild. The Broncos are healthy and playing their best football. Yeah, Buffalo is hungry, but so is Denver. The Broncos will shock the world and pull off an upset on the road in prime time.
Sean Keeler, columnist: Bills 27, Broncos 18
The Bills are mortal away from Orchard Park, but at home? In front of the Mafia? Under the lights? They’re basically Kansas City North. No NFL squad sported a better home passer rating (117.5) than Buffalo heading into the weekend. Only the Chiefs have as many passing first downs at home (72) and only the Dolphins have as many home passing TDs (13). You can run on the Bills, absolutely. And you should. But Josh Allen probably gets the last word in. Again.
Mark Kiszla, columnist: Bills 20, Broncos 16
You will be able to feel the desperation on a Monday night in upstate New York, where everyone is already grumpy because the darkness of winter has arrived and the snow that doesn’t melt until spring looms just around the corner. Did the Bills miss their Super Bowl window? Was that victory against Kansas City more than a temporary reprieve in another lost Broncos season? Desperation turns to panic for the loser of this game.
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