“The BJP has been very effective in terms of negotiations and ensuring the cabinet is a body which would ensure a continuity with the previous regime,” said Sandeep Shastri, director of academics at Nitte Education and national coordinator of Lok Niti Network, which studies elections.
“If you look at the cabinet, 25 out of 30 cabinet ministers belong to the BJP,” he said.
The BJP also dominates the key positions in the 70-strong ministerial council, leaving its allies to hold relatively less important positions such as food processing, Panchayati Raj, which oversees village councils, medium and small-scale industries and civil aviation.
The cabinet selection has surprised observers as the BJP is dependent on allies in the National Democratic Alliance, particularly Telugu Desam Party and Janata Dal (United), to attain most at least 272 seats in the lower house of parliament to form the government.
The BJP won only 240 seats in the recent election, far short of its target of 370 seats and the 303 seats it attained in 2019.
Modi likely negotiated hard with the Telugu Desam Party and Janata Dal (United) to support them in their respective Andhra Pradesh and Bihar states, Shastri said.
“I think the agreement within the coalition is that these two major coalition partners would be provided financial support in their states and in return, they will not push for too much demand at the federal level,” he added.
A recent boost to state finances after the central bank said it would pay a record dividend of about US$25 billion to the government means Modi can afford to be generous in supporting his allies, analysts say.
Telugu Desam Party’s leader Chandrababu Naidu, who took over as the chief minister of Andhra Pradesh on Wednesday, is looking to build a new state capital in Amravati.
The party would need considerable financial resources for the massive capital project in Andhra Pradesh, analysts say. In the case of Bihar, the underdeveloped state will also require a significant cash injection for various projects, they add.
“Given that most people continue with the same [cabinet] position, it seems the authority of the Modi government remains undiminished,” said Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, an independent political commentator.
“I think the coalition partners have stuck to their numerical strength and gone by the convention that the dominant party takes the most ministerial portfolios,” he said. “Modi has shown himself to be as authoritarian as he has always been.”
The BJP will need to prepare for crucial state polls in the coming months, including in Maharashtra, Haryana and Delhi, after suffering losses in its Hindi-speaking regions in north and western India in the recent election.
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Modi’s BJP claims ‘historic’ victory in Indian election despite smaller majority
Modi’s BJP claims ‘historic’ victory in Indian election despite smaller majority
Analysts say it is too early to conclude that Modi’s power would be unchallenged by BJP’s allies under a new coalition government.
Janata Dal (United) has asked for a caste-based census and a review of a soldier recruitment programme, the latter of which has upset residents who aspire for regular army jobs to enjoy benefits such as pensions.
“The ministerial allocation process remains incomplete and is poised to escalate tensions within the government,” said Ajay Darshan Behera, an international studies professor at Jamia Millia Islamia University in Delhi.
The jostling within Modi’s coalition is set to intensify, with his allies demanding more ministerial portfolios and the BJP pushing for a merger with the smaller parties to attain a parliamentary majority on its own, Behera said.
“We may witness some strategic manoeuvres as early as this week. If they don’t break any party and manage a majority of their own, the threat of instability will continue to hang over the government.”