On Friday afternoon, with 60 per cent of the votes counted, Zuma’s MK was leading the ANC by 43 per cent to 18 in the electoral battle ground province of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), a huge pool of votes.
In the national race, the newcomers had more than 12 per cent, putting them in third behind the ANC, whose vote collapsed from more than 57 per cent in 2019 to 42 per cent on Wednesday, and the centre-right Democratic Alliance (DA).
KZN, home to South Africa’s largest port and second largest city Durban, has previously always been run by the ANC or the Zulu nationalist Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP).
So what explains the sudden turnaround?
“As anticipated, the MK has eaten into the ANC’s vote and dented into the IFP vote as well,” said Siphamandla Zondi, a politics professor at the University of Johannesburg.
KwaZulu-Natal province, like most of the country has been affected by crippling power cuts, disruptions to water infrastructure and municipal mismanagement.
In addition, the ANC’s provincial leadership has been plagued with infighting and factionalism. Earlier this month the ANC Veterans League warned that “weak” leadership in the province may cost the party votes.
“Losing votes in KZN definitely affected the ANC nationally significantly because of the make-up of the province and the population,” said Sihawukele Ngubane, African Languages professor at the University of Kwa Zulu-Natal (UKZN)
But Lubna Nadvi, a political analyst and UKZN politics lecturer, said the ANC’s upset in KZN was not solely to blame for it losing major ground nationally. “The fact that it’s fallen below 50 per cent is because of its problematic performance in all of the different areas it has been governing,” she said.
Disillusioned KZN voters took action in groves because they were primarily seeking a change in leadership, according to analysts.
KZN voters, Nadvi said, “are largely gravitating towards what they know which is the personality and image of Jacob Zuma”.
The ex-leader announced in December he would campaign for the MK and was subsequently suspended by his former political home, the ANC.
In the face of scandals and corruption allegations, the charismatic Zuma remains popular particularly among the country’s more than 10 million fellow Zulus.
“This raises questions around ‘do these voters not know that Zuma has been implicated in these things?’ or that they do know but prefer to ignore it and still vote for him?” Nadvi said.
Running for general elections for the first time, there were many unknowns about the MK party.
No candidate for provincial premier or local leadership has been suggested in the event of it garnering control over KZN, and very little is known about the party’s structure.
“MK is an untested entity when it comes to governance … there is no track record,” Nadvi said.