The prime minister’s public support level rose by 2.4 percentage points to 24.6 per cent in a Kyodo News poll in late July from a month earlier, while a Jiji Press poll put his support rate at 15.5 per cent earlier in July.
The LDP has been badly bruised by several scandals since Kishida assumed office in October 2021, notably over its close ties to the controversial Unification Church that only came to light after the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in July 2022. A more recent scandal involved slush funds amassed by dozens of party members.
Analysts say while Kishida may have wanted to stay on, he sensed that the party could force him out due to his low public support.
“The timing is perhaps surprising because it is so close to the party leadership election. But if we consider the LDP scandals and Kishida’s low support rate, then it is clear this is a critical moment for the party and maybe Kishida realises the LDP needs more radical change if it is going to win the next election,” Murakami said.
At a press conference at his office, Kishida said: “As a first step to impress on the public that the LDP has changed, I have decided not to run in the presidential race.”
He added that the party’s members should “work as one” under the next leader to restore public trust and tackle key issues facing Japan, including a shrinking birth rate, an ageing population, economic challenges and defence capabilities.
Yoichi Shimada, a professor of international relations at Fukui Prefectural University, said he believed the consistently poor public opinion polls for Kishida and the party meant his leadership at LDP had become impossible, and the party needed to move “quickly and decisively” to select a new leader.
Several potential replacements have emerged, and more politicians are expected to announce their candidacies in the coming days, with analysts saying there is no clear favourite currently.
Shigeru Ishiba, a former defence minister, has indicated that he will run in the LDP election, although the conservative wing of the party has long regarded the popular politician as being soft on China. Digital Transformation Minister Taro Kono has also reportedly said that he would be a candidate.
Other possible candidates include Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, who is a Kishida loyalist, and Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa. Shinjiro Koizumi, a former environment minister, is considered more of a long shot due to his youth and inexperience, while LDP Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi is seen as “politically very capable, but arrogant and lacking in charisma,” Murakami said.
The influential right faction of the party may already be coalescing around the hawkish Minister for State Economic Security Sanae Takaichi, who ran unsuccessfully against Kishida in 2021 and has been quoted as saying that her political idol is the late British leader Margaret Thatcher. If she were to succeed in emulating the “Iron Lady’s” rise to power, she would be the first woman to become Japan’s leader.
“She is the most conservative politician of all those whose names have been mentioned so far, and that is why she appeals to the traditionalists within the party even though she is a woman,” Shimada said. “I believe she can take the party and the country in the direction that we need.”
Electing a hardline conservative after almost 12 years of more centrist LDP rule might, however, play into the hands of opposition parties that might see this as an opportunity to put their differences aside and challenge the LDP, analysts say.
“The polls suggest that the public is unhappy with the LDP and the present government, so this might be the best opportunity that the opposition has had in more than a decade to truly challenge them,” Murakami said.
To succeed, the opposition would have to put aside their differences and formulate policies that appeal to voters more than those put forward by the LDP, Murakami added.
“They need to be realistic in what they want to do. It will still be difficult, but this appears to be the best chance for the opposition for many years, and the next general election could fundamentally change the face of Japanese politics.”