Making sense of a crazy situation

Many UCLA fans have spent years clamoring for Chip Kelly’s dismissal and made their feelings known via empty seats in the Rose Bowl and outrage on social media.

Turns out, the feeling might be mutual: It seems Kelly wants nothing to do with UCLA.

He reportedly is pursuing job opportunities in the NFL and, perhaps, elsewhere in major college football. But in a highly unusual development, none of those opportunities constitute upward moves. In fact, they aren’t even lateral.

If the barrage of media reports are to be believed, Kelly is so tired of UCLA that he’s willing to become an offensive coordinator in the NFL or, potentially, a playcaller in the Big Ten.

Not all the reports linking Kelly to coordinator openings in the NFL (Commanders, Raiders) have been confirmed, and he hasn’t uttered a public peep about the situation. But at least one link is legitimate: An interview with the Seahawks to join new coach Mike Macdonald’s staff as the offensive playcaller.

And if Ohio State offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien fills the head coaching vacancy at Boston College, as many expect, Kelly could become a top candidate in Columbus to coach under Ryan Day, his former player (at New Hampshire).

In other words, a Big Ten-bound head coach making $6 million annually (approximately) would abdicate his position for a lesser role and lower compensation. And he’s making no secret of it, for the situation is playing out publicly on a daily basis.

Kelly is different. He has always been different. He was into hydration methods and sleep study and geo-tracking long before his coaching peers. But even for Kelly, this is bananas — not to mention an embarrassment for everyone involved.

Not to worry. The Hotline is here to help decipher a development that traces its roots to the first month of Kelly’s first season.

September 2018 feels like an eternity ago. The world was unaware of a wet market in Wuhan, China. All was quiet on the realignment front. The transfer portal didn’t exist. NIL was years from implementation.

But UCLA fans undoubtedly can recount every Saturday of the month, because their team was winless. Yep, 0-4. The Bruins lost on the first Saturday of October, as well, and finished the season 3-9. The enthusiasm that accompanied Kelly’s arrival the previous winter vanished instantly and, for many, was never rekindled.

Kelly eventually hauled UCLA to the high side of .500, posting three consecutive years of at least eight wins. The administration offered a contract extension following the 2021 season and then again after 2022, with the latter smartly featuring terms that were school-friendly.

Last season, the Bruins started fast but slogged through conference play and suffered desultory home losses to Arizona State and Cal. They did, however, hammer USC.

Kelly’s job security was a hot topic for a few weeks in November. But UCLA has never been that school — the school that axes its coach after winning eight games and bashing its rival. Especially when the eight-win season immediately follows a nine-win season.

Also, UCLA would have owed Kelly an $8 million buyout (approximately). And if you know anything about the state of the athletic department’s finances — the Bruins have tens of millions in accumulated debt — or the state of chancellor Gene Block’s mind, you know that’s $8 million the school wasn’t going to spend.

So the Bruins cast their gaze to the 2024 season and life in the Big Ten. Kelly did the same. And in our view, that’s where the situation turned tenuous.

UCLA should have a fairly potent offense with quarterback Ethan Garbers and several top playmakers returning. But the defense must be rebuilt under a new coordinator after D’Anton Lynn skipped across town to join USC’s staff.

Also, the 2024 schedule is brutal. The Bruins play Hawaii, LSU, Penn State, Rutgers, Nebraska and Washington on the road — that’s 25,000 travel miles, or more than one trip around the world at the equator. (On the bright side, it’s only one-tenth of the way to the Moon.)

And the home schedule isn’t exactly soft with Iowa, USC and Oregon.

So next year … the first year in the Big Ten … the big year … could be challenging.

What if the Bruins regress? Let’s say they finish 7-5, or 6-6. What then?

Well, two things happen: First, Kelly’s buyout drops to $4 million (approx.); second, a new boss arrives.

Block is stepping down this summer after 17 years leading the campus. There’s a good chance the next chancellor will take a more favorable view of football and zero chance the next chancellor will take a lesser view of football.

Which means the financial calculation should swing in UCLA’s favor, with Kelly’s reduced buyout and the freedom to offer a competitive salary for an established coach.

Kelly knows all that, as does his agent, Jimmy Sexton. And they are undoubtedly peering into the 2024 cauldron:

— It will be a grind, not only on the field but at the 35,000-foot cruising altitude.

— The contractual leverage will shift to UCLA.

— The external issues making program management so challenging for head coaches (e.g., NIL and the transfer portal) aren’t going anywhere.

All of which adds up to Kelly exploring his options, staying one step ahead of the termination papers.

The strategy makes sense, but the execution has been all wrong. The public nature of Kelly’s job pursuits are awkward now and could make life exceedingly difficult if he returns to Westwood for the 2024 season.