Some scoffed at $500 million for Shohei Ohtani. But I am again hearing speculation about $600M, which was my original prediction before an arm injury knocked him off the mound for 2024.
I’ll stick with $500M. But I think that may be the baseline number.
Ohtani is not only the best player in years, and maybe ever, he’s a unique marketing opportunity. Some suggest teams can rake in an extra $35M with Ohtani, maybe more if he ignites a playoff run, although management sources say the figure may be closer to $20M.
There’s no debate he brings extra excitement, even while awaiting his return to the mound.
This is the free agent to end all free agents, so here’s my updated odds board. Anyway, I have a new favorite — actually two to join the original at the top.
T1. Rangers: They got a taste of winning, are unafraid to spend and made his first cut six years ago. Word is they were ready to go for Ohtani at midseason. Odds: 6-1.
T1. Giants: They’re surely desirous of a big star after failing to land Giancarlo Stanton, Bryce Harper and Aaron Judge. There is one issue: folks wonder if Ohtani would sign up for a ballpark tough on left-handed hitters. Odds: 6-1.
T1. Dodgers: The favorite forever has the money, is the most consistent winner and cleared payroll space last winter. The negatives are that they already are close to selling out and need a pitcher more than a hitter. Odds: 6-1.
4. Mets: Steve Cohen obviously can afford it. The drawback of course is that the Mets are already in the highest tax territory, meaning they’ll be taxed at 110 percent on most if not all his contract (so a $60M salary is really $126M). Some predict the Mets to be “more disciplined” after last year’s spending spree. But this is a special case. Odds: 8-1.
5. Red Sox: The New Balance link has folks speculating Boston. He certainly seems to like playing there, and they can’t like finishing last three of the last four years. Odds: 10-1.
6. Angels: The incumbent team doesn’t look ready to win in 2024, but they do have a decent nucleus of position players. He surely appreciates their willingness to let him do his thing, and he posted three of the best years ever there. Odds: 15-1.
7. Cubs: They may just be one hitter away, one big hitter. He would seem a bit rich for their taste, but definitely doable. Odds: 20-1.
8. Yankees: They need to do something big, and what a combo he’d make with Aaron Judge. He’d love to hit at the Stadium but he’s said not to love pitching there. Odds: 22-1.
8. Padres: They collect big stars. But it’s hard to see how they afford him. And they will need pitching, with Blake Snell, Seth Lugo and Josh Hader free agents. Odds: 25-1.
9. Mariners: They tried hard back when he was a bargain six years ago. He does have connections there (a trainer) but might be steep for their 54 percent solution. Odds: 30-1.
10. Field: Most teams don’t have to worry about the Cohen tax. So don’t assume a mid-market team won’t win the day. Odds: 8-1.