After a 3-1 homestand, the Los Angeles Lakers will embark on a six-game road trip, beginning Tuesday night with a visit to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks.
Los Angeles is currently ninth in the Western Conference standings and three games ahead of the 11th-seeded Rockets.
Even with the Lakers taking on a quality team in the Bucks, they still have the seventh-softest remaining schedule, with their opponents having a combined win percentage of .472, per Tankathon.
Thus, perhaps it makes sense for the Lakers to prioritize the health of their star player, LeBron James, over winning games for the rest of the season.
James (ankle) is out for Tuesday night’s game against the Bucks. Christian Wood (knee), Jarred Vanderbilt (foot) and Gabe Vincent (knee) have also been ruled out.
With the news that James will sit this one out, the Bucks have moved to a 9.5-point favorite after opening at -4.5.
If you missed out on the best of the numbers, it’s probably too late to play Milwaukee.
However, bettors can still find value by backing the Bucks on the first-half point spread at -5.5.
Lakers vs. Bucks odds
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
| Lakers +9.5 (-110) | Over 231.5 (-112) | Lakers +340 |
| Bucks -9.5 (-110) | Under 231.5 (-108) | Bucks -430 |
Lakers analysis
I’m always worried about the substitute teacher effect with the Lakers whenever James isn’t on the court.
Surprisingly, according to GimmeTheDog, Los Angeles is 5-4 straight-up and 4-5 against the spread (ATS) without James this season.
However, there is a bit of a revenge factor here with the Bucks, who lost to the Lakers on the road less than three weeks ago, 123-122.
To their credit, the Lakers can be a dangerous team when fully healthy, as their front office has done a good job building the roster to complement James and Anthony Davis.
The hope is that Los Angeles will have those players available for the playoffs. However, the reality is the Lakers have largely been inconsistent this season.
For example, ESPN’s Relative Percent Index suggests the Lakers should be closer to a .500 team rather than their 39-32 record.
That’s not exactly what you’re looking for in a team you’re looking to put your hard-earned money behind.
Bucks analysis
We’ve seen quite a few storylines surrounding the Bucks this season. They fired their former head coach, Adrian Griffin, just 43 games into the season despite a 30-13 record.
Griffin lost the confidence of the veterans in the Bucks’ locker room after tinkering with their defense by scrapping a drop-coverage scheme with Brook Lopez retreating to defend the rim on pick-and-rolls in favor of a blitz approach to trap the ball handler.
This decision proved costly for Milwaukee as it fell to 20th in defensive efficiency after finishing fourth in the previous campaign.
When Doc Rivers was hired to replace Griffin, he simplified Milwaukee’s defensive assignments. Since his arrival, The Bucks have improved their defensive efficiency to 14th in the league and are coming off a victory in which they held Oklahoma City to a season low in points.
But one thing that’s probably been overlooked has been how Khris Middleton’s injuries have affected the Bucks this season.
Middleton has played 46 of the Bucks’ 71 games, and Milwaukee is averaging roughly seven more points per game when he’s in the lineup (123.0 vs. 116.08). He’s averaging 18.3 points, 6.3 rebounds and 7.7 assists in the three games since his return to the lineup last week.
Lakers vs. Bucks pick
There are some pretty stark home-away splits when you look at the first-half numbers for the Lakers and Bucks.
According to our Action Labs database, Los Angeles is 12-20 ATS on the road this season, including four straight losses.
Betting on the NBA?
For Milwaukee, it’s 23-11-1 (67.6%) ATS at Fiserv Forum and 22-9-1 (71%) ATS when it’s a home favorite.
Both angles are in play for Tuesday’s matchup.
I’m not sure we’ll find a better spot to fade the Lakers in the first half, so I’ll lay the 4.5 points at BetMGM and back Milwaukee to start fast Tuesday night.
Pick: Bucks 1H -4.5 (-125, BetMGM)