The Detroit Lions will visit the San Francisco 49ers for Sunday’s NFC Championship Game. It’s a compelling matchup featuring a 49ers team that’s made the NFC title game in three straight seasons and a Lions team that hasn’t been this far since the 1991 season. Detroit lost to eventual Super Bowl champion Washington, 41-10, in that NFC Championship Game.
But the No. 3-seeded Lions are back and hungry to prolong their electric playoff run, which has already featured wins over the Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The 49ers, who are the NFC’s No. 1 seed, beat the Green Bay Packers last week to return to the title game.
It’s expected to be about 70 degrees with sunshine at kickoff in Santa Clara, Calif., on Sunday, which will come at about 3:30 p.m. local time. The game will finish — and an NFC champion will be crowned — under the lights.
Here’s a preview from David Lombardi (who covers the 49ers) and Colton Pouncy (who covers the Lions).
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The 49ers will win if …
Lombardi: If they do a reasonable job containing Detroit’s run game. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are both big-time threats and the 49ers’ run defense ranks No. 26 in EPA/play. Green Bay targeted that weakness with several crack tosses, including a late one to Aaron Jones that went for a huge gain. The 49ers have emphasized better edge setting and tackling angles from the back end this week, but this late in the season, it’s fair to say that the poor ranking on run defense is simply part of their identity. So the defense must deliver an extraordinary effort in that area Sunday. Perhaps the 49ers can capitalize on the absence of Detroit left guard Jonah Jackson.
Controlling the run is vital because the 49ers want to create pass-rushing leverage against Lions quarterback Jared Goff, whose efficiency numbers against pressure have ranked much lower than those from a clean pocket. The 49ers saw a lot of success against Goff when he was with the Rams, and it started by cutting off a primary mechanism of protection for him: the run game.
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The Lions will win if …
Pouncy: Offensively, the Lions will have to run the ball, control the clock, limit turnovers and capitalize in the red zone. That’s what it’s going to take against a 49ers team with few obvious weaknesses to exploit. The 49ers have allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game this season, but they’ve also seen the fewest rush attempts of any defense — perhaps a product of teams trailing and abandoning the run. In terms of yards per rush, the 49ers are about average — 14th at 4.1 yards. Additionally, the 49ers rank just 27th in defensive rushing success rate and 28th in defensive rush EPA per snap, per TruMedia. The Lions will need to control the line of scrimmage and need their backs to find success. If that happens, it will limit the bites at the apple for Brock Purdy and a talented 49ers offense against Detroit’s defense.
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Who will be the X-factor?
Pouncy: Left guard Kayode Awosika. The Lions will be without Jackson, their starting left guard who is out with a knee injury. Enter Awosika. It’s been a bit of a bumpy ride for Awosika, who’s had some bright spots and some hiccups. He’s given up 21 pressures in just 189 pass-block snaps and faces the tall task of limiting Arik Armstead and Javon Hargrave. Less than ideal, but if Awosika can keep Goff upright and help others create lanes for the backs, the Lions can hang with the 49ers offensively. If not, it could be a long day.
Lombardi: It’s hard to pick a single player, especially because the 49ers’ biggest concern — that run defense — will require unit-wide cohesion to address. So I’ll go with Purdy, who’s the point man of the entire attack. Detroit’s biggest weakness is its pass defense, which is ranked No. 16 in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), and Purdy is key to exploiting that.