It’s been tough sledding for the Denver Broncos this season, and it won’t get any easier Thursday night as they travel to Arrowhead Stadium to battle the Kansas City Chiefs as 10.5-point underdogs.
Let’s dive in and look for some winners.
Here are some of the best PrizePicks plays for Thursday night:
Isiah Pacheco more than 14.5 fantasy score
Pacheco’s health is at its peak as the season moves into the middle of October.
That’s evident by him logging a season-high 60% of snaps in Week 4 and running it back with 59% in Week 5. He is the Chiefs’ superior tailback.
Not only is Pacheco on the field much more than he was last season, but he’s also receiving more touches.
And with Kansas City as a heavy favorite, it projects to be a positive game-script for the Chiefs to play with a lead, which could set up for a heavy rushing attack in the second half to try and burn out the clock.
Pacheco has scored in three straight games, and now he’ll take on a Denver defense that has set the worst DVOA numbers through five weeks of any NFL season.
There’s a lot trending in a positive direction for Pacheco, and the matchup couldn’t be any better.
Then there’s the weather, which could be a factor.
RotoGrinders meteorologist Kevin Roth projects 15-20 mph sustained winds with a chance for rain throughout the game.
Why not lean on the ground game here?
Travis Kelce fewer than 66.5 receiving yards
Yes, we’ve established that the Denver defense is historically bad, but if the Chiefs play with a lead, use the run game and weather is a factor, there’s a chance Kelce won’t have to do much.
And is potentially good news for the Chiefs, as the superstar tight end who is well “on the map” was downgraded to questionable and is dealing with an ankle injury.
Rumors are circulating that his boo, Taylor Swift, could be attending Thursday night’s game, so you’d think Travis would want to lace ‘em up to impress his girl.
But who knows how much he’ll play or be involved if the game gets ugly.
Denver’s opponents have only thrown the ball 30.8 times per game this season, as most of them have been front-running with a nice lead.
It never feels good doubting Kelce in any circumstance – and he could certainly be a big reason Kansas City jumps out to a big lead.
Betting on the NFL?
But if you’re thinking that way, I’d use his “more than” numbers on a separate entry that does not involve Pacheco having a solid game as well, as the Chiefs path of offensive production would likely be completely different.
For the sake of correlating the three plays for this game, let’s go less than 66.5.
Jerry Jeudy more than 11.0 fantasy points
There is no doubt Jeudy is the most talented receiver on the Broncos. The potential negative game-script is a huge added bonus here.
Health was an issue for Jeudy to start the season, but he logged a season-high 86% of snaps last week.
His target share and route participation numbers are about equal to fellow wide receiver Courtland Sutton, and I anticipate Jeudy taking over the alpha role at some point this season.
As the Broncos should be trailing in this game, Jeudy should be peppered with enough targets to eclipse this number.