The 2023-24 NHL season is two months old, and one of the biggest storylines is how many teams with high expectations have stumbled out of the starting gate.
Look no further than any preseason Stanley Cup odds. The five teams that had the best odds to win a title per BetMGM were sixth, 11th, 14th, 19th and 25th in the league standings after the games Friday night. The most recent Stanley Cup champions were first, sixth, 15th, 20th, 18th and 21st.
There’s enough data to start to form some opinions, and to identify some weaknesses. There is time for disappointing teams to get it together, but it’s unlikely that they all will.
This field feels pretty wide open. The 2021 Tampa Bay Lightning or 2022 Colorado Avalanche would almost certainly be a significant favorite against anyone in the NHL right now. But those teams aren’t going to be in the 2024 tournament.
Which teams look like true Stanley Cup contenders? Which ones have started well but aren’t actually threats to win 16 playoff games?
Note: Records are as of the results on Dec. 8
Nice start, see you in a couple years
Philadelphia Flyers (14-10-2)
Detroit Red Wings (14-7-4)
Arizona Coyotes (13-10-2)
All three of these teams would be in the playoffs if they started today, which would make this season a no-doubt success. All three have young players to build around. The future is intriguing, but the present is still about building to get there someday.
The window is closing
New York Islanders (11-7-7)
This core made it to the conference finals twice, but this roster isn’t contender quality and there’s little flexibility to make it any better.
Washington Capitals (12-8-3)
Haven’t won a series since winning the Cup, and the Sharks have more goals right now.
Calgary Flames (11-12-3)
It doesn’t feel like it was that long ago that this team fancied itself a contender, but it’s much closer to tear-down and try something else time than one tweak or one trade from a deep playoff run.
Nice start, but we don’t buy it
Vancouver Canucks (17-9-1)
Our ability to analyze teams with advanced stats has progressed beyond just Corsi and PDO, but sometimes the combination of a very high shooting percentage with a very high save percentage equals a big red flag.
Boston Bruins (17-5-3)
The flameout last year is not why they land here. If anything, NHL history is littered with teams that bounce back from that type of situation to win. It’s the centers. The numbers can look almost as good or just as good … but that center depth chart has to be a problem in April/May, right?
Bad start, but we might still buy it
Tampa Bay Lightning (12-11-5)
They’ve allowed 99 goals, third-most in the league. Andrei Vasilevskiy has missed most of the season. Check back in a month or so.
Pittsburgh Penguins (11-12-3)
Everyone reading this has scored as many NHL power-play goals as the Penguins since Nov. 11. The goaltending is better, Erik Karlsson has been very good … so fix the power play and this might still work.
Get back to us when you find some goaltending
Edmonton Oilers (11-12-1)
Carolina Hurricanes (14-11-1)
New Jersey Devils (13-10-1)
Hey look, it’s three of those teams that had top-five odds at the start of the year. They’re second, third and fourth in expected goals percentage at 5-on-5. The rosters look great. They can score with anyone … and nobody would pick any of them to win anything with goalies that can’t stop 88% of the shots they face.
Nice team, but … 16 wins?
Toronto Maple Leafs (13-6-4)
Florida Panthers (16-8-2)
Winnipeg Jets (15-8-2)
These are the best of the rest. Toronto has the high-end talent, but the defense is a mess and the goaltending is a big question mark. Florida and Winnipeg have no obvious red flags, but both also just feel a player or two short. Both of those teams could probably beat anyone in a seven-game series. Can either of them win four series though? The Panthers got close last year, but 13 wins is often further away from 16 than fans tend to believe.
The no-doubt contenders
Vegas Golden Knights (17-5-5)
The defending champs look great. We’re nitpicking, but it’s still hard to believe that goaltending group will conjure up the same magic again. It’s really hard to repeat, but it’s also hard to see a scenario where the Golden Knights don’t play deep into the spring again.
Colorado Avalanche (16-8-2)
They could use Artturi Lehkonen and Samuel Girard back and healthy, and maybe an addition before the deadline if the finances can work. But this team finds a level of play that few others can get to. Will they be able to get there enough for two months when it matters?
Dallas Stars (15-7-3)
Are the three best teams in the NHL in the Western Conference? That’s what it says here. The Stars and Avalanche have very similar profiles right now. The two favorites in the Central could be barreling towards a titanic second-round matchup.
New York Rangers (18-5-1)
The underlying 5-on-5 numbers aren’t great, but the special teams are and Igor Shesterkin can be better. Wouldn’t bet on them against any of the “Big Three” in the West, but Shesterkin could get them over the finish line if they get to the Final.
Los Angeles Kings (16-4-3)
The high end of the roster doesn’t quite line up with the others here, but the center depth is great and the underlying numbers are no joke. A reason to possibly buy stock now in both the Rangers and Kings: Alexis Lafreniere and Quinton Byfield, the top two picks in the 2021 draft, are starting to look like top-two picks and might give these teams an extra half gear when they need it.
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