Nolan Arenado trade has failed to produce what Cardinals hoped

Time brings perspective, even in the hot-button world of contemporary sports.

So it is with the Rockies’ 2021 trade of star third baseman Nolan Arenado to the Cardinals.

As word of the trade leaked out, Sports Illustrated wrote: “Years from now, what transpired in the baseball world on Jan. 29, 2021, will be remembered as the Friday Night Heist. The Cardinals held up the aimless Rockies for their best player, made Colorado fork over $50 million to cover their tracks and left behind an undisclosed bundle of mid-tier prospects for their troubles.”

That was the nearly universal sentiment at the time. And while the trade will forever symbolize missteps by Colorado’s ownership and front office, its consequences are no longer black and white. More than three years later, there are multiple shades of gray.

Arenado appears to have peaked, and now, at age 33, his career is on the downside. And while it’s true that he escaped the losing culture in Colorado, the postseason dreams he longed for in St. Louis seem far away.

The Rockies lost their best and most dynamic player when the trade went down. Believe it or not, they still pay part of Arenado’s salary. Last year, they forked over $16 million for him to play for the Cardinals. This year, the Rockies are paying only $5 million.

The Rockies have yet to replace Arenado’s star power. They tried and failed when they signed Kris Bryant to a seven-year, $182 million contract before the 2022 season. Plus, many Rockies fans have never forgiven the organization for the Arenado trade and turned their backs on the team, perhaps forgetting that the star third baseman forced his way out of LoDo.

Still, 3 1/2 years removed from that dark day in Colorado sports history, the trade is not the complete bust it was predicted to be, largely because of left-hander Austin Gomber, who’s emerged as Colorado’s best starter. Over his last 23 starts since June 25, 2023, he’s 6-5 with a 3.36 ERA  and has posted 12 quality starts over that span (entering this weekend). Gomber was sensational in May, going 4-0 with a 1.71 ERA in five starts.

Gomber is eligible to become a free agent after next season, so if he stays healthy, there is a possibility the Rockies could trade him for a decent return. Or, if the Rockies can begin turning things around in 2025, perhaps the lefty remains a cog in the rotation.

Elehuris Montero was also part of the Arenado trade. He was a bust as a third baseman, but with Bryant spending more time in the trainer’s room than on the diamond, Montero has emerged as a decent first baseman. At the plate, however, Montero stands in no-man’s land. It’s doubtful he’ll ever be an impactful major league player over the long haul. Although he’s reduced his strikeout rate from 36.2% last season to 22.0% currently, he’s hitting just .209 with a .570 OPS and a meager three home runs.

But the deal will forever be known as “The Arenado Trade.” When it went down, the storyline was that the 10-time Gold Glove third baseman had found greener pastures. But unless the Cardinals rediscover their winning ways, the trade will ultimately be viewed as a disappointment.