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The most demanding of the four men’s golf majors tees off Thursday at Pinehurst No. 2 — the venerable North Carolina course where Payne Stewart defeated expectant dad Phil Mickelson on Fathers Day 1999 with an 18-foot par putt on the 18th hole. Stewart, who had two kids of his own, died in a plane crash just four months after the most famous of his three major wins.
As the U.S. Open returns to Pinehurst’s wickedly contoured greens for the 25th anniversary of Stewart’s iconic victory, there’s more on the line than one of the prettiest trophies in sports and $20 million US in cash prizes, including $3.9 million to the winner. This is the final tournament in the Olympic qualifying window.
Only 60 players get to compete in the men’s event in Paris this August — a tiny number compared to the 156 in the U.S. Open and even the 89 in this year’s Masters. But it’s not simply the top 60 in the world rankings who are invited. The top 15 are all eligible, but only up to a maximum of four players per country. Beyond the top 15, it’s a max of two per country.
Judging by the current world rankings, the United States will probably be the only country with more than two players in the Olympic men’s tournament. Nine Americans are in the top 15, with world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, No. 2 Xander Schauffele (the reigning Olympic champion), No. 4 Wyndham Clark (the defending U.S. Open champ) and No. 7 Collin Morikawa holding the Olympic spots right now. Patrick Cantlay, Max Homa, Sahith Theegala and Brian Harman — ranked ninth through 12th — and No. 15 Keegan Bradley are among those giving chase.
No other country has multiple players in the top 15. The non-American contingent is led by third-ranked Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland, who played for Ireland at the 2021 Olympics in Tokyo and is expected to do so again. Then there’s No. 5 Victor Hovland of Norway, No. 6 Ludvig Aberg of Sweden, No. 8 Jon Rahm of Spain (the only LIV Golfer in the top 15), No. 13 Tommy Fleetwood of Great Britain and No. 14 Hideki Matsuyama of Japan.
The chase for Canada’s two Olympic entries heated up last week at the Memorial, where Adam Hadwin placed third to climb 24 rungs in the world rankings and leapfrog Corey Conners for the No. 2 Canadian spot.
Heading into the U.S. Open, Nick Taylor remains the top Canadian at No. 32, followed by Hadwin at No. 35 and Conners at No. 46. Taylor Pendrith and Mackenzie Hughes are Nos. 65 and 66, respectively. They’re all playing at Pinehurst, where the strength of the field means a lot of rankings points are up for grabs.
Conners placed 13th at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics and currently sits a Canadian-best 13th in DataGolf’s player rankings, which are more dynamic than the official world rankings. So he might be Canada’s best shot at an Olympic men’s golf medal. But Hadwin and Taylor grew up together in Abbotsford, B.C., and Hadwin was famously tackled by a security guard when he rushed the green to celebrate his pal’s Canadian Open win last year. So that would make for a neat pairing in Paris.
A few more things to know about the 124th U.S. Open:
Scheffler is a huge favourite.
For a while, it seemed like not even a prison cell could contain the most dominant men’s golfer since Tiger Woods’ heyday. After winning the ultra-lucrative Players’ Championship and his second Masters title, Scheffler was within striking distance at the halfway mark of last month’s PGA Championship despite being arrested for an alleged traffic violation and put in jail by an overzealous cop just hours before his second round. The big Texan faded to an eighth-place finish as Xander Schauffele captured his first major title, but Scheffler tied for second at the following week’s PGA Tour event before winning the big-money Memorial last week for his fifth victory in his last eight starts.
The betting markets suggest Scheffler’s chances of winning the U.S. Open are nearly three times better than any other player’s. That sounds wild, but there are no holes in the world No. 1’s game right now. According to DataGolf’s skill ratings, Scheffler is the best on the planet off the tee, the best by an almost unbelievable margin on approach shots and tied for the best around the green. His only supposed weakness, putting, is not even really a weakness anymore. Scheffler ranks 50th out of some 400 players with the flat stick, and his putting has been statistically above average in each of his last eight tournaments.
Scheffler placed third at last year’s U.S. Open and tied for second in 2022, just one stroke behind England’s Matt Fitzpatrick. It’s tough to bet against him finishing the job this week.
Other players to watch:
Schauffele is the No. 2 betting favourite after shedding the dreaded “best player to have never won a major” label at the PGA Championship. McIlroy, who’s been stuck on four major titles for a decade now, has the third-best odds after losing to Clark by one shot last year in Los Angeles.
Clark’s No. 4 world ranking suggests he’s still one of the top players in the world, but the betting markets say otherwise and so do DataGolf’s rankings, which have him down in 33rd after two consecutive missed cuts.
Morikawa, a two-time major champion, and Hovland, last year’s FedEx Cup winner, round out the top five in the gambling odds. Behind them are a pair of LIV players who won the U.S. Open before defecting to the rival tour: Brooks Koepka went back-to-back in 2017 and ’18 and now owns five major titles, while Bryson DeChambeau won the 2020 U.S. Open at Winged Foot.
Tiger Woods is playing his first U.S. Open since missing the cut that year. But don’t expect much from the hobbled 15-time major champ. His best result in his three starts this year was a 60th-place showing at the Masters, where he shot 16 over par.