As of June last year, according to a long-running poll by Taiwan’s National Chengchi University, only about 6 per cent of Taiwanese surveyed supported either unification or independence as soon as possible, while nearly 88 per cent wanted to maintain the status quo.
In the book US-Taiwan Relations: Will China’s Challenge Lead to a Crisis, authors Ryan Hass, Bonnie Glaser and Richard Bush expound on the official US position on Taiwan. America’s one-China policy is guided by the Taiwan Relations Act, three joint communiques and “six assurances”.
The authors stress that America’s policy is designed to preserve Taiwan’s democratic success story and the credibility of America’s security commitments without triggering conflict, while providing the time and space for an eventual peaceful solution that is acceptable to Taiwan’s people.
Accordingly, Taiwan is to be accorded all the elbow room it needs as a flourishing democracy, where independent nationhood is not a prerequisite.
Perhaps more importantly, as Columbia University professor Howard French points out in Foreign Policy, if Beijing were to take over the island, its navy and other military forces would have free rein in the Western Pacific, eclipsing US influence and power in that important theatre, with all that it implies.
In Beijing’s eyes, with Taiwan being helped to play a more prominent role as an entity independent in all but name from mainland China, America’s one-China policy is in danger of being hollowed out.
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Why Taiwan is a ‘life-or-death question’ for China: Cui Tiankai on US-China tension
Why Taiwan is a ‘life-or-death question’ for China: Cui Tiankai on US-China tension
In particular, the 130km-wide Taiwan Strait is almost four times the width of the English Channel, and Taiwan has very few sites suitable for coastal amphibious landings.
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Taiwan residents living within sight of mainland China voice concerns over live-fire drills
Taiwan residents living within sight of mainland China voice concerns over live-fire drills
Meanwhile, cross-strait exchanges are increasing. An estimated one to two million Taiwanese live and work on the mainland. Bilateral tourism continues to flourish. More Taiwanese film directors, actors and actresses are making their cut on the mainland, as are Taiwanese start-ups.
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Taiwan election exposes generational rift over potential reunification with mainland China
Taiwan election exposes generational rift over potential reunification with mainland China
Most Taiwanese do not want de jure independence for its own sake. Unification has become very unpopular because the vast majority deeply cherish their political system and way of life, according to an analysis by the Brookings Institution, a Washington-based think tank.
To induce Taiwan to negotiations, Beijing may need to spell out a more liberal and accommodative constitutional package, preserving not only Taiwan’s way of life but also its political system, including free and fair elections for its leader and legislature, with measures to help the island expand its presence in the mainland and internationally, playing a full role as Taiwan (China), including membership of organisations not requiring nationhood.
As the years go by, if the Chinese dream of a peaceful unification is not to slip away, Beijing will have to think outside the box.