Meanwhile, the treaty signed by the two leaders provides for “mutual assistance in the event of aggression against one of the parties”. This wording is likely to raise concerns in the West, with media outlets reporting that the agreement is equivalent to a mutual defence pact.
During the summit, Kim declared that his country’s relations with Russia had been upgraded. “Relations between our two nations rose to a new high of alliance”, Kim said.
The new mutual assistance provision could provide a justification for Pyongyang to provide soldiers, workers or technicians to help Moscow in Ukraine if Kyiv’s actions are framed as aggression against Russia. On the other hand, the provision could also result in Russian military support for North Korea in the case of military aggression by the United States or South Korea.
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Putin, Kim sign ‘strongest ever’ defence treaty amid growing tensions with the West
Putin, Kim sign ‘strongest ever’ defence treaty amid growing tensions with the West
However, the lack of details surrounding the agreement means it remains unclear what measures could be included as mutual assistance or what could be identified as aggression. In reality, a full-blown defence treaty between the two would place unwanted pressure on Moscow. Russia would not want to be dragged into a hot war in Korea, especially given Putin’s military ambitions in Europe.
It would be more practical for the two sides to expand military cooperation related to the conflict in Ukraine while increasing exchanges in other fields, such as tourism, education and the economy. In particular, North Korea is likely to help Russia with the export of artillery shells and other munitions. In recent remarks, Putin raised the possibility that Moscow could allow North Korean migrant workers into the country, despite sanctions forbidding this.
In exchange for aiding Russia’s efforts in Ukraine, North Korea is likely to receive economic assistance, food aid, oil and other benefits from Moscow. Russia could also transfer sensitive military technologies that could help Pyongyang further advance its satellite, submarine and even nuclear weapons programmes.
Russian tourists arrive at Pyongyang International Airport on February 9 as the first known foreign tour group to visit North Korea since border closures due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Photo: AFP
Deepening economic cooperation between the two sides can also be expected. Putin praised Pyongyang’s efforts to overcome the impact of Washington’s “economic pressure, provocations, blackmailing and military threats”. The Russian president also vowed to build an alternative settlement system with North Korea that will not be controlled by Western countries.
Putin pledged to work closely with North Korea to “oppose illegitimate unilateral restrictions” through new trade and payment mechanisms. One way Moscow could do this is by conducting financial transactions with Pyongyang through its own central bank digital currency, which was launched last year.
North Korea can also expect continued Russian support on the sanctions front. In March, Russia vetoed the extension of a UN panel that had been responsible for monitoring sanctions enforcement.
US Army soldiers wait to board a helicopter during a joint military drill with South Korea in Pocheon, South Korea on March 19, 2023 as North Korea launches a short-range ballistic missile towards the sea. Photo: AP
The latest pact may, however, also have implications for North Korea and Russia’s relationship with China. Publicly, China respects closer relations between Russia and North Korea, but Beijing will undoubtedly have concerns regarding greater instability on the peninsula and the risk of a possible regional arms race.
South Korea, the US and Japan are likely to react to the deepening Russia-North Korea partnership with expanded military cooperation, which is undesirable to China. Similarly, if Pyongyang receives advanced military technologies from Moscow, this could spark a regional arms race which could prompt South Korea and Japan to upgrade their own weapons programmes.
However, although some in the West consider China as being in a bloc with Russia and North Korea, Beijing’s desire for regional and global stability in connection with its economic interests are too great for it to jeopardise such priorities by blindly supporting Russian and North Korean military behaviour.
Pyongyang and Moscow are also well aware of their disproportionate dependence on China. Although China is also no fan of the US military presence in the region, there is a limit to what China will accept. Russia and North Korea will have to tread a fine balance between deepening military ties and maintaining stable relations with China.
With rising tensions along the inter-Korean border in recent weeks, the stakes are too high to allow room for further provocations. With North Korea’s diplomatic leverage continuously growing, Washington must proactively change its North Korea policy in a way that allows for the resumption of productive dialogue to de-escalate tensions before it’s too late.
Dr Gabriela Bernal is a North Korea analyst based in Seoul, South Korea
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