Every dollar and every bullet the United States diverts to Israel for its war in Gaza is a dollar and a bullet that is not being sent to Ukraine. The explosion of conflict in the Middle East is thus rare welcome news for Russian President Vladimir Putin, finally providing a distraction to Ukraine’s military and political backers.
Russia is looking to take every advantage it can. The situation has also offered China an opportunity, if less directly. The war in Gaza and the threat of its spread to other parts of the Middle East are already proving a strategic headache for the US and threaten to open the first major crack in the international focus on Ukraine since the Russian invasion in February last year.
Hamas’ shocking assault on Israel on October 7 involved atrocities that have drawn comparisons with the Holocaust. The sheer shock and trauma of the event has not just galvanised Israeli public opinion but also opinion across the US political establishment.
The US response has been decisive and unequivocal, with US President Joe Biden referencing the Holocaust when stating after the attack that Israel will never have to face such threats alone. It is already hugely influential on Hezbollah and Iran’s decision-making that the US has deployed its military might – two aircraft carrier groups have been positioned off the coast of Israel – to deter Hezbollah from joining Hamas in the fight.
This has undoubtedly played a major role in Hezbollah, Iran and Tehran’s other allies largely staying out of the conflict so far. There have been small-scale attacks from Lebanon and a few missiles fired from Yemen at Israel, but for now there is a deliberate avoidance of opening up a new front in the war and bringing both an Israeli and US military response.
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Humanitarian crisis unfolding in Gaza as food supplies run out after total Israeli blockade
Humanitarian crisis unfolding in Gaza as food supplies run out after total Israeli blockade
However, this US commitment presents several substantial challenges. Already the deep divisions in Congress – not just between Democrats and Republicans but also with damaging infighting with the Republican Party over domestic economic policies and the Ukraine war – have been exacerbated by the Israel-Hamas war.
Key factions in the Republican caucus in Congress, which are increasingly isolationist in nature, vociferously oppose continuing to send weapons and aid to Ukraine. Yet many of these same Congress members strongly support increasing military assistance to Israel as it wages war on Hamas. The one drives the other – the more support for Israel, the stronger the desire to avoid allocating further US funds to Ukraine.
On November 2, the Republican-led House of Representatives approved US$14.3 billion for Israel’s war. But it only did so by tying the aid to domestic spending cuts and provided no money for Ukraine, in direct defiance of the president.
The vote passed 226 to 196, emphasising the deep divides in Congress. It is highly unusual for aid packages to Israel, usually enjoying near unanimous bipartisan support, to face objections. Yet it was opposed by most Democrats in the House because of its exclusion of funding for Biden’s domestic drive to boost tax collection and the lack of support for Ukraine.
No surprise, then, that, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, speaking on November 4 in Kyiv with the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, said it was clear that the war in the Middle East was “taking away the focus” from Ukraine.
Zelensky pushes US for more aid, invites Trump to Ukraine
This is all music to Russian ears, with Putin finally having a means to distract and divide the Western coalition that has been united in opposition to his assault on Ukraine. Putin would love nothing more than to drag the US into another expensive and unpopular conflict in the Middle East.
There is also a Russian dimension to the Iranian role in the Gaza crisis. Russia-Iran relations have thrived since Russia invaded Ukraine, with Tehran providing desperately needed military support to Putin, including hundreds of sophisticated military drones. Iran will take confidence from the fact the Russians owe them for their military support in Ukraine, and their common interest in weakening US interests in the Middle East provide strong grounds for continued cooperation.
China also has spied an opportunity, with the benefits of the US having numerous global distractions and drawing criticism for its unwavering support for Israel being obvious. The level of Chinese engagement in this crisis is unusually proactive, a rare break from Beijing’s stated principle of non-interference.
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Chinese President Xi Jinping offers Palestinian leader a ‘lasting solution’ to conflict with Israel
Chinese President Xi Jinping offers Palestinian leader a ‘lasting solution’ to conflict with Israel
Foreign Minister Wang Yi has called for a ceasefire and said Palestinians have suffered for too long. China’s public pronouncements after just a few days of fighting in Gaza were already markedly different from their stated position of impartiality after nearly two years of fighting in Ukraine.
China’s stationing of warships in the Middle East in response to the Israel-Hamas war and its possible escalation has raised eyebrows across the globe. Chinese authorities have played down the implications of the presence, saying many were in the region already visiting Gulf states with which China continues to build relations.
It is likely they are in the region to help prevent the conflict from spreading into the Gulf, an area of economic and strategic importance to China. There are no indications that Beijing wants any military role in the current crisis, but the presence of US and Chinese military assets highlights the dangers of the crisis in the Middle East.
China and Russia will continue to take solace in the US political divides and Israel’s war in Gaza weakening support for Ukraine. Both have a vested interest in seeing those divisions grow. Zelensky’s fears that Gaza could prove a disaster for Ukraine are well-founded, and Putin will do all he can to ensure the war in Gaza distracts the US and diverts its aid from Ukraine.
Hagai M. Segal is a leading authority on geopolitics, counterterrorism and the Middle East
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