Opinion | Israel-Hezbollah war: not a question of if, but when

This could push Israel into an energy red zone, forcing the United States and Europe to rescue Tel Aviv. The West might also put pressure on countries such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to supply emergency energy to Israel, while also taking steps to restore confidence to global energy markets by boosting oil output.

However, if Israel launches an offensive in Lebanon and shuts down energy exports to Egypt, Turkey might respond by shutting off energy exports to Israel. A significant amount of Israel’s oil flows from Azerbaijan through Georgia and Turkey. With Tel Aviv and Ankara already locking horns, a war in Lebanon could cross Turkey’s red lines.

Suddenly, the Middle East could be hit with a dual energy crisis. And, considering how fragile and volatile global markets have been in recent weeks, an energy crisis could transition into an economic crisis.

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World reacts to air strikes killing Hamas leader in Iran and Hezbollah commander in Beirut

There is also the growing threat facing civilians in Israel and abroad. Unlike Hamas, which has limited offensive capabilities, Hezbollah is one of the most well-trained, well-equipped and well-funded proxies in the world, estimated to have 150,000 missiles and rockets. The leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, has warned of a war without limits if all-out conflict breaks out. Israel has said that Hezbollah will pay a “disproportionate price” if Israeli civilians are attacked.

If a war between Israel and Hezbollah begins, all of Israel may be fair game, putting ordinary people at risk. Except it might not just be civilians in Israel who could be hurt. Israeli says that Hezbollah has cells as far away as Brazil. The group has also been linked to the 2012 bus attack in Bulgaria that killed five Israeli tourists and their Bulgarian driver.

This raises the stakes, for Israel – and the world. If Israel and Hezbollah start swinging, depending on how bloody it gets, a shadow war could commence, with Hezbollah launching attacks against Israel’s people and supporters abroad, putting putting innocent civilians at risk. Governments around the world may have to deal with Israel-Hezbollah conflict playing out within their own nations, and between their own citizens.

The entire outlook on the Middle East is also at risk of permanently changing. Instead of being a region defined by growth and development, the Middle East could increasingly be defined by war and instability.

If Israel and Hezbollah collide, millions will flee Lebanon. This will create a dual refugee crisis, as people flee Palestine and Lebanon at the same time, pouring into neighbouring nations.

Hezbollah has warned that in the case of a war with Israel, Cyprus could be a target if it allowed Israel to use its territory, threatening to expand an Israel-Hezbollah war into the Mediterranean, and by extension, into Europe.

Of course, the big elephant in the room is Iran. After Israel’s reported operations in Beirut and in Tehran, the question is no longer whether Iran will get involved in a war with Israel, beyond its expected direct retaliation. Rather, it is how far Iran will go to support its proxies scattered across the region. For instance, could Iran arm the Houthis with Russian weaponry?

Projectiles fired from Israel’s Iron Dome air defence system intercept missiles from southern Lebanon on August 4. Photo: EPA-EFE

Adding to all this, the US has warned that Iran could develop fissile material for a nuclear bomb within weeks. If true, this means the flare-up between Israel and Iran is far from over. The steps Israel has reportedly taken in Beirut and Tehran could serve as a springboard for unilateral action against Iran’s nuclear facilities, further increasing the risk of regional war.

What is looming between Israel and Hezbollah is far more grave than most realise. Both Israel and Hezbollah believe they are fighting for survival. They will throw everything to stop the tide from changing against them.

This challenges decades of diplomacy. Those trying to avoid war are quickly being rushed into one, as geopolitics works in volatile ways. It is no longer a question of if an Israel-Hezbollah war begins, but when.

The task in front of the world is to identify what steps can be taken to control the fallout. Because, once a war begins, the steps nations take, from energy to defence, could push the Middle East off balance, and create a new status quo that was unimaginable just a short time ago.

Abishur Prakash is the founder of The Geopolitical Business, an advisory firm in Toronto

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