Opinion | Return of China-Japan-South Korea talks brings hope of de-escalation

Differences were also apparent. While all three countries affirmed the importance of denuclearising the Korean peninsula, Chinese Premier Li Qiang called on the “relevant parties to exercise restraint” – seen as an indirect rebuke of the strengthened military ties between the United States, Japan and South Korea that Beijing sees as escalating tensions.

Seoul and Tokyo, by contrast, denounced Pyongyang’s satellite launch plans, which violate UN sanctions and undermine the Korean peninsula’s stability. The diverging security visions confirmed the challenge of harmonising the trio’s regional priorities.

Despite such fissures, the summit sketched out blueprints for deeper cooperation. First, through more corporate engagement. Over 280 business officials and ministers convened a meeting on the summit sidelines, emerging with pledges to facilitate cross-border commercial ties and establish a permanent working group.

The joint leaders’ statement also welcomed the convening of the Trilateral Entrepreneurs Forum in 2024, organised by the Trilateral Cooperation Secretariat, an international organisation established by the three governments in 2011.

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Trade and Taiwan discussed at 3-way summit for Chinese, Japanese and South Korean leaders

Trade and Taiwan discussed at 3-way summit for Chinese, Japanese and South Korean leaders

Bringing business stakeholders into the process injects bottom-up perspectives focused more on shared economic interests than top-down wrangling over military tensions.

With companies having significant equities at stake across all three countries, corporate cooperation could provide a productive pathway towards sustainable engagement between the neighbours – even as their governments differ on political and security matters. South Korean corporations, for instance, remain heavily invested in China, so nurturing business ties creates institutional incentives for regional stability.
The second proposal is to start on less-politically-charged areas where easy wins are possible, ingraining habits of policy coordination that can eventually enable progress on weightier topics. Shared imperatives like combating climate change, catalysing technological innovation and strengthening public health offer meaningful wins for teamwork – areas that enjoy bipartisan domestic support in all three countries.

Tangible cooperation on such significant yet relatively apolitical issues could help restore perceptions of China as a trustworthy partner.

According to a Pew Research poll, Japan and South Korea ranked among the countries with the most unfavourable views of China last year (87 per cent and 77 per cent negative, respectively). Building a track record of multilateral coordination, even on non-security matters, may rehabilitate reputations and grease the wheels for collaboration over knottier challenges.

Such diplomatic heavy lifting is imperative after years of deteriorating regional trust. Only by first establishing basic habits of cooperation and the promised people-to-people ties can the more glamorous vision laid out at the summit – of the trilateral partners collectively engaging with other entities like Asean or Pacific Island nations – become plausible.

Third and most fundamental is the imperative of simply maintaining open channels for dialogue between Beijing, Seoul and Tokyo. Even when breakthroughs prove elusive, the mere act of talking prevents minor frictions from escalating needlessly.

The region has seen the destabilising consequences of such diplomatic tensions in recent years. China’s imposition of unofficial economic sanctions on South Korea over a missile defence system in 2017 spiralled into a major rift due to an inability to directly air grievances. More recently, South Korea’s strategic alignment with the US, and the Chinese responses to that, made government-level communication even more fragile.
Likewise, the crisis that erupted between Seoul and Tokyo in 2019 over historical disputes and mutual export controls was fuelled by a breakdown in leader-level engagement. Deteriorating public sentiment leading to corporate boycotts was left unchecked by a lack of governmental engagement.

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South Korea-Japan trade war tensions flare

South Korea-Japan trade war tensions flare

Where deep-rooted distrust lurks, aggressive diplomacy – belligerent public statements and tit-for-tat – becomes the default mode in the absence of faces across a negotiating table. Keeping dialogue channels open prevents small disagreements over issues such as trade or military activities from escalating out of control.

To be sure, the summit’s joint statement reflects the limitations in bridging these gulfs. It avoided directly calling out North Korea’s provocative satellite launch and made no concrete proposals for enhancing security cooperation, reflecting persistent differences over how to approach Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions. Other areas of disagreement, including regional security pertaining to the Taiwan Strait, remain an obstacle to closer alignment.

Still, restarting a channel for dialogue itself lays a vital foundation. After nearly five years of suspended processes, the trilateral meeting’s greatest achievement was to reinstate a baseline commitment among rivals that diplomacy, economic interdependence and regional stability remain priorities over conflict.

Many obstacles remain in transitioning from a foundation of crisis management to collaboration between neighbours. De-escalating endemic tensions through dialogue is just the start. But by committing to keep conversing rather than retreating into a diplomatic deep freeze, China, South Korea and Japan have opened the door to a more constructive path, if their new dialogue process can be sustained. The talking has just restarted – now the real work begins.

Jinwan Park is a Washington-based foreign-policy researcher and an incoming Schwarzman Scholar at Tsinghua University, China

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