North Korea refused to talk to Yoon’s past conservative predecessors and is likely to continue that trend. Furthermore, the coming of a second Donald Trump administration may not result in a new age of negotiations – at least not at first.
Pyongyang has tested the resolve of new administrations in Washington and Seoul, even those it eventually enters into dialogue with. The last time Trump came to office in 2017 was among the tensest times on the peninsula since the nuclear crisis of the 1990s – ultimately resolved by behind-the-scenes talks between Pyongyang and the progressive Moon Jae-in government.
Now, with Kim Jong-un recalling Trump as the man who left him at the altar at Hanoi – not to mention the former US president’s tendency to overreact – and the Yoon administration lacking the diplomatic backchannel to North Korea that Moon had, tensions may persist for years and even enter a dangerous new phase.
03:23
Breaking down why Trump and Kim failed to reach a deal in Hanoi
Breaking down why Trump and Kim failed to reach a deal in Hanoi
However, there may be a way to achieve some measure of progress in the meantime. North Korea’s relations with the European Union might get less attention than its relations with the US or its immediate neighbours. Even so, North Korea has enjoyed diplomatic relations with the EU since 2001 and has established ties with most of its member states.
These countries do not share the same history of hostility towards North Korea over its nuclear programme, human rights record or past provocations towards South Korea. The EU itself maintains a policy of “critical engagement” with Pyongyang, especially over human rights.
And for the sake of keeping some channels of communication open, both Washington and Seoul should encourage the EU to engage North Korea in conversation. Such talks may reveal the extent of the loathing North Korea has for the Biden and Yoon administrations. They may also reveal truths about North Korea’s intentions, which may be to continue defying US-led efforts at extended deterrence in Northeast Asia.
These exchanges may also reveal that North Korea is concerned about how countries, including EU member states, will vote on human rights resolutions at the UN General Assembly later this year.
On May 2, 2001, European commissioner for external relations Chris Patten, Swedish prime minister Goran Persson, and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il pose for a photo before a meeting in Pyongyang. Photo: Reuters
It has been 10 years since the United Nations’ Commission of Inquiry released its report on human rights in North Korea, which drew attention to the government’s violence against its people and its past actions during periods of devastating famine. Although UN resolutions are often derided for their lack of efficacy, especially when it comes to North Korean issues, the international scrutiny that the human rights report brought to Pyongyang’s leadership in 2014 clearly had an impact on it.
In response to a resolution based on the 2014 report, North Korea attempted a “charm offensive” to signal its openness to talks, confronted the panel after it was disassembled, attacked the credibility of defectors who testified and marshalled its diplomatic partners in a failed effort to water down the resolution. Government spokespersons treated the accusations in the report as a direct affront to their supreme leadership.
The EU should enter negotiations with no illusions about North Korea’s intent. It can discuss matters with Pyongyang, including human rights, but should make no promises to vote against resolutions or abstain in the absence of a change in North Korea’s behaviour.
But given the current lack of negotiations, the EU should enter them nonetheless. With North Korea ramping up its engagement with Russia, speaking in threatening tones towards South Korea, expanding its space programme and developing hypersonic missile technology, the dearth of new information causes nothing but more uncertainty. For all their doubts about raising North Korea’s diplomatic profile, the US and South Korea should welcome dialogue that ameliorates the current situation.
Rob York is programme director for regional affairs at the Pacific Forum
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