Their only chance was a surprise win in Iowa. But they failed. And there will be no DeSantis New Hampshire miracle or a Haley comeback in South Carolina. This is Trump’s nomination and he took it on Monday – decisively.
While his win wasn’t a surprise, it is still a pivotal moment in American history, as it marks the official start of Trump’s political resurrection.
It is one thing to attend town halls on Fox News or hold rallies in Sioux Center, Idaho. Storming to victory in the party’s first contest with the entire nation – and indeed the world – watching, is another.
Even with a low voter turnout – around 110,000 party members took part in the caucuses – he did better than many expected and secured the biggest caucus win in history. And, perhaps even more importantly, neither Haley nor DeSantis, in turn, lived up to the lofty expectations.
Iowa’s election results were predicted by opinion polls in the state, which also show him in a solid lead for the coming primaries. Without some black swan event, Trump is destined for a wire-to-wire victory.
In Des Moines on January 15, he gave a speech that only he could have given: an improvised collection of attaboys, self-praise, and the usual incoherent rambling. But he even acted conciliatory. All of a sudden, Trump was talking about unity – only to then go on and call Joe Biden the “worst president” ever.
But neither his win nor the unity statement was the real message of the night.
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Trump gained over US$100 million through fraud, New York says as civil trial starts
Trump gained over US$100 million through fraud, New York says as civil trial starts
The point has been made before but it’s worth repeating: Trump has been showing us what he plans for his presidency. He has said he wants to be a dictator for one day – the first of his presidency if elected – to champion his fantasies of retribution and it is clear that he wants to dismantle the justice system.
Trump still owns the Republican Party, but Elise Stefanik waits in the wings
Trump still owns the Republican Party, but Elise Stefanik waits in the wings
He is on trial in different states, for numerous crimes, but his growing popularity shows that none of this matters to Trump supporters – despite being members of a party that has traditionally championed law and order.
When Trump said in 2016 that he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and not lose any voters, it seemed too preposterous to take seriously. By now, the question is whether any Republican voter would care about even the most heinous crimes associated with Trump.
Nevertheless, it is intellectually lazy to simply label all Trump supporters racists or morally compromised. Sure, they exist in numbers, but the real question is why so many Republican voters, who in many cases used to favour traditional politicians, are now rooting for this cult leader to fight for them and their interests, whether it’s against “globalism” or “socialists”.
The data suggests the Trump base isn’t necessarily the crowd that has attended plenty of civics classes in college. They are often workers who have witnessed the erosion of American industries first hand. And the situation has become so dire, so hopeless for many of them, that Trump appears to be the only answer – except he is not, needless to say.
Future Republican candidates will outdo themselves in MAGA carbon copies henceforth to secure the vote of the “forgotten men and women”, with coherent debates, respect or truth no longer being relevant. That’s the message the Iowa caucus conveys.
Thomas O. Falk is a journalist and political analyst who writes about German, British, and US politics