Amid a polarised political climate, Kennedy could find more support from the public. According to a recent Economist/YouGov report, Kennedy is among the most liked figures in national politics. Forty-seven per cent of Americans view him positively while 35 per cent have a negative view.
In the same report, 49 per cent of respondents have a positive view of Trump as opposed to 48 per cent who view him negatively. Conversely, 42 per cent view Biden positively while 54 per cent hold a negative view of the president.
For Biden to have a winning chance, a major point of messaging on the Democrats’ side is focused on making sure Trump does not win. Biden may lose voters to Kennedy in the critical states of Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia and Michigan, which Biden narrowly won in the 2020 elections.
According to a Gallup report published in October, 63 per cent of voters say that the Republican and Democratic parties are doing a “bad job” of representing the American people and that there is a need for a third major party.
This represents a seven-point increase from a year earlier and is the highest figure since Gallup first asked the question in 2003. Moreover, some argue that having a third-party candidate in the race would enrich American democracy.
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US Congress certifies results of presidential election after Trump supporters storm the Capitol
US Congress certifies results of presidential election after Trump supporters storm the Capitol
Trump’s confrontations with the establishment and the intelligence community during his presidency already made the Republican coalition more fragile. If Trump is re-elected, his faction would become more powerful.
The problem is not limited to the Republicans. The US political system is based on a two-party balance. The breakdown of the Republican coalition could also affect the alliance of factions within the Democratic Party.
The current democratic system in the US seems to have reached its limits with constant gerrymandering, extreme polarisation and the weakening of fair and equal representation. These trends are probably not the vision the founding fathers had for the country. From this perspective, alternatives outside the two-party system could gain popularity.
While third-party and independent candidates in the US have historically struggled to gain momentum, there are signs in the evolving political environment that their impact could grow. Amid increasing dissatisfaction with the two major parties and a rise in support for alternative candidates, third-party and independent candidates could be the kingmakers of the country’s political future.
Çağdaş Yüksel is a deputy researcher at TRT World Research Centre