Given their strategic importance to the US, India and Vietnam garnered some criticism from Washington for engaging with Putin amid efforts by the Biden administration to isolate him. The US embassy in Vietnam protested Putin’s visit to that country, asserting that “no country should give Putin a platform to promote his war of aggression and otherwise allow him to normalise his atrocities.”
At first glance, the two diplomatic visits aren’t perhaps all that surprising. Russia has long been a military supplier to India and Vietnam, dating back to the Cold War. Yet, despite this history, data shows that Russia’s military footprint in the two countries has been weakening for years, even before the war in Ukraine began.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, between 2010 and 2019, Vietnam imported as much as 83 per cent of its arms from Russia. But since 2020, Russia’s share in the Vietnamese market has fallen to only 39 per cent. In India, Russia’s share of total imports has fallen from 65 per cent between 2010 and 2019 to only 36 per cent since 2020. These trends are consistent with Russia’s decline as a military supplier worldwide.
So, why are India and Vietnam unwilling to cut Putin loose, despite Russia’s decline, their own close ties with the US and pressure from Washington? The reason is geopolitical.
For years, India has been trying to insulate itself from these threats by encouraging trade in the Indian rupee. India’s central bank has allowed some local banks to open special accounts for foreign banks to ease payments between trade partners in rupees. In May, the central bank signalled that non-resident Indians will be allowed to open rupee accounts in other countries.
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Why Russia might be warming to China’s presence in Central Asia
Why Russia might be warming to China’s presence in Central Asia
All of these factors have combined to present a significant strategic problem for the US in Asia. Washington believes that its allies in the Indo-Pacific, like its allies in Europe, will help strengthen Western norms and rules. But to emerging powers like India and Vietnam, Western hegemony is as much of a challenge and a threat as it is a counterweight to China’s growing footprint.
In recent years, the US has been willing to live with these differences and continue arming its allies in Asia, in large part because it believes that the militarisation of China’s neighbours is crucial to upholding the balance of power in the region. But Washington should be more cognisant and wary of the limits of these partnerships.
Mohamed Zeeshan is a foreign affairs columnist based in Washington, DC, and the author of “Flying Blind: India’s Quest for Global Leadership.”