Take the example of the European Union, which built on the more than US$100 billion the bloc has already provided in financial, humanitarian, emergency, budget and military support to Kyiv. New announcements last week included signed agreements worth €1.4 billion (US$1.5 billion) with partner banks to attract investments in Ukraine from the private sector and delivery of an additional €1.9 billion from the EU’s Kyiv aid facility by the end of June.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the Ukraine Recovery Conference that Kyiv badly needs equipment for heating and electricity plants that are currently out of action. According to the president, 9 gigawatts of electricity-generating capacity have been destroyed, including 80 per cent of thermal power and one third of hydroelectric power.
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Ukraine war two years on: disease, displacement and demands for aid
Ukraine war two years on: disease, displacement and demands for aid
Hostilities in Ukraine show no sign of ending soon. This is why European leaders want post-war reconstruction to become more prominent on the political radar again, especially ahead of the Group of 7 (G7) summit in Italy. Many Western leaders view the international stakes of Ukraine’s rebuilding as so big that failure could have profound consequences for Ukraine, the broader region and the wider West.
The nation’s rebuilding will resemble that of western Europe after World War II, eastern Europe after the Cold War and the western Balkans after the break-up of Yugoslavia. It will be the most ambitious post-war reconstruction effort in the 21st century.
So although the war rages on, Western decision-makers are now thinking more intently about these issues. At the G7 summit, for instance, Western powers agreed on a plan to use the future income from US$300 billion in frozen Russian assets to boost funding for Kyiv in the form of a US$50 billion loan.
Beyond the question of money, however, is Western political strategy towards Ukraine. This is linked to the EU’s future enlargement in the wake of Russia’s invasion.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni greets Ukrainian PresidentVolodymyr Zelensky on the opening day of the G7 leaders’ summit in Savelletri, Italy, on June 13. Photo: Bloomberg
The European integration process began in the 1950s with the goal of preventing another large war on the continent. In the decades since, the EU has steadily expanded, Brexit aside, while espousing the idea that economic and political integration among nations is the best way to promote general prosperity and peace.
In recent years, however, the enlargement process for nations such as Turkey and western Balkan countries has been much more challenging than was the case for Central and East European countries before 2004. This reflects so-called enlargement fatigue after the “big bang” enlargement of 2004.
With the process stalling for years, the rejuvenation of the enlargement agenda has been driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In the period since, the European Council has sought to accelerate Ukraine’s potential accession.
An attendee of the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Berlin, Germany wears an EU and Ukraine flag lapel pin badge, on June 12. Photo: Bloomberg
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said last week that accession talks with Ukraine to join the EU will start at the end of this month, with Kyiv having fulfilled all the necessary reform requirements to begin accession talks. However, while there is much energy behind Ukraine’s bid, EU enlargement is still a potentially lengthy process. French President Emmanuel Macron has warned it could take decades for Kyiv to become a full EU member.
While the EU’s enlargement process might appear unrelated to Ukraine’s rebuilding, the two are actually closely linked in the eyes of many stakeholders. The EU accession process is likely to occur in parallel with reconstruction. In part, this is because of the acknowledgement of the need for wider political and institutional change in Ukraine.
Taken together, while the war may last for a while longer, recent events show much activity is under way on the reconstruction agenda. Ukraine’s short-term future is still about survival, so until large-scale fighting ends, much of the reconstruction process will remain frozen.
Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics
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