Overconfidence or ignorance? BJP’s disregard for ground reality could be the real reason behind below-par performance

After a decade of remaining in power and confident from delivering on its poll promises, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) approached the 2024 Lok Sabha elections with high expectations. The slogan ‘Ab ki baar 400 paar’ exuded the party’s confidence of not just getting the majority but of a big win, yet again. They did get the majority, however, it was not similar to the expectations the party had. This no-contest turned out to be an absolute shocker with BJP-led NDA getting 293 seats and Opposition INDIA bloc settling for 232 seats of 543 total seats.

Now, one would question what could be the possible reason behind BJP’s below-par performance this time around?

Strategic errors?

Several strategic errors might the reason why party encountered difficulty in performing in 2024 elections. The significant challenges might include retaining the incumbent MPs even after the adverse feedback and integrating candidates from other parties, leading to indifference among its cadres, TOI said in its report.

The party also abandoned its conventional tactic of mitigating local anti-incumbency by replacing sitting MPs, specifically in Uttar Pradesh. This decision can be seen as a key factor for defeat of many candidates in the BJP-ruled state, where the party expected gains given the separate contests by SP and BSP.
Furthermore, despite the construction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya and the Yogi Adityanath government’s focus on law and order, the party’s strategy faltered.

Bringing in candidates labeled as ‘outsiders’ and some with tainted reputations undermined the party’s anti-corruption stance, without offering compensatory benefits. Additionally, the Opposition effectively used caste dynamics to disrupt Hindu consolidation, a strategy to which the BJP was slow to respond, especially among influential communities like Jats, Meenas, and Rajputs.

The opposition’s claim that Yogi Adityanath would be replaced as Uttar Pradesh’s chief minister created further complications. Internal party coordination issues over candidate selection and publicised disagreements over alliances with local outfits like the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party in eastern UP exacerbated the situation.

Discontent with RSS over ‘outsiders’?

There were some reports indicating discontent within the RSS over ticket distribution, favoring ‘outsiders’ over seasoned party cadres, which weakened grassroots campaign efforts. BJP President JP Nadda’s alleged statement about ties with RSS, “we have grown more capable,” reportedly caused additional harm, despite his clarification of being misquoted.

Despite these setbacks, the BJP managed some strategic successes. Alignments with regional parties like the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) in Andhra Pradesh and the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in Odisha yielded positive results.

In Andhra Pradesh, the BJP formed an alliance with the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), resulting in a sweeping victory in both the Lok Sabha and state assembly elections. In Odisha, the BJP emerged as a significant contender against BJD, winning a majority in state polls and securing 19 out of 21 Lok Sabha seats.

Following a poor performance in the Karnataka assembly elections, the BJP reinstated veteran leader B.S. Yediyurappa. Despite the earlier removal of Yediyurappa as Karnataka chief minister leading to dissent, the appointment of his son Vijayendra as state unit president and a beneficial tie-up with JD(S) helped the BJP secure 19 Lok Sabha seats in the state.