Chicago Cubs’ Ian Happ is congratulated after hitting a home run during the ninth inning of a … [+]
When Ian Happ hit his game-tying, ninth inning home run in Milwaukee Friday night, it looked for a moment like the Cubs’ playoff hopes were not dead yet. Already on the ropes because of a sweep in Atlanta, they came into the final weekend of the season needing every win against the Brewers to stay in position for a wild card berth.
But instead, as has been happening to them all week, the Cubs gave up a walk-off double in the bottom of the tenth, not long after the Marlins completed their victory over the Pirates in Pittsburgh. At about the same time, the Reds finished demolishing the Cardinals.
After all of that, the Cubs are 1.5 games behind Miami and tied with Cincinnati. They don’t own the tiebreaker against either team. They’re left with the highly improbable scenario — one where they win the next two games against the Brewers while the Marlins lose their next two and then lose the makeup game to the Mets on Monday — as their only shot at the postseason.
In short, it ain’t happening.
They’re not technically eliminated yet, but a loss Saturday night would make official what’s already known: The Cubs fought valiantly to rise up from ten games below .500 in early June to in the playoff picture, but there’s not enough left in the tank. As recently as September 6, their playoff chances were over 92%, according to Fangraphs.
Now, those odds are down to four percent. With two games left to do what they can to swing incredibly steep odds back in their favor.
“We’ve got to win every game,” manager David Ross told reporters after Friday’s loss. “It’s been that way for a while now. I know the score.”
Again, while it is technically possible for the Cubs to still get in, their focus will soon need to be reflecting on what happened in 2023 and to start thinking about how to approach the offseason and prepare for next season.
It’s not easy to pinpoint what exactly went wrong for the Cubs, which is part of the problem. They have a +96 run differential, which is the best in their division and among the highest in the National League. They have lost a lot of very close games, especially in September:
One of the predominant speculations is that the process of fighting back from being down ten games under .500 in June to where they stood just two months later left the team running out of energy to finish their playoff push.
“I think it’s just that’s the season that we’ve had this year,” Happ told reporters, denying that anyone in the clubhouse was running on fumes. “We’ve had to play a lot of those games. We had to fight back from where we were early in the season. That’s part of it. That’s part of what this was, but you’re never going to ask for anything else [if it means you] get to this spot.”
It’s fair to wonder if working so hard to climb the standings took a lot out of this team, even if they aren’t going to admit that at this point. Injuries to key players didn’t help things, either. Essentially losing Marcus Stroman for the entire second half, for example. Or closer Adbert Alzolay hitting the injured list earlier this month. He returned from the IL Friday and pitched the eighth inning, but by now, it might be too little, too late.
The Cubs will finish the year with an estimated payroll of $190 million, which leaves plenty of room for being active over the winter. They have in-house targets, like attempting to keep Cody Bellinger, who played the 2023 season under a one-year, $17.5 million deal. There’s a mutual option in place for 2024, but given how well Bellinger played this season, he is expected to at least test the free agent market.
Stroman also has a mutual option for next year, one that he seems likely to pick up. If not for the injury-plagued second half he had, Stroman might also be headed for free agency, but the Cubs might luck into retaining the All-Star for another season.
All things considered, this Cubs season was a step in the right direction for them. Maybe not successful, but one that should leave fans encouraged. Struggling like they did in September might have helped the front office see more clearly what needs they have to address during the offseason and position the team to actually get to the playoffs in 2024.