Dismissed from the military amid speculation of rights abuses, exiled in Jordan and once banned from the U.S., Indonesian Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto is now poised to be the country’s next leader on his third try for the office.
Subianto has taken a commanding lead in unofficial results from Wednesday’s election in this country of 270 million people. There was no declaration from electoral officials and his opponents have not conceded.
Long a polarizing figure, the ex-special forces general’s presumed victory is the pinnacle of a triumphant rehabilitation decades in the making.
“This victory should be the victory for all Indonesians,” he said on Wednesday night. “We will assemble a government team consisting of the best sons and daughters of Indonesia.”
Links to strongman Suharto
From an elite Indonesian family and once the son-in-law of late strongman president Suharto, the 72-year-old Subianto is accused of involvement in the kidnapping of student activists in 1998 and human rights abuses in Papua and East Timor.
The allegations are unproven, and Subianto has always denied any responsibility.
In the election campaigns of 2014 and 2019, Subianto was seen as a fiery nationalist who cozied up to hardline Islamist groups. More recently, his image has softened, with a social media-focused campaign highlighting his Javanese dance moves and “gemoy,” or cute, demeanour.
After losing to outgoing president Joko Widodo twice, Subianto had the popular incumbent’s tacit backing, as well as his son as a running mate.
By appointing Subianto to his cabinet, Widodo provided him with a level of validation and visibility he previously lacked, earning him red carpet treatment as defence minister on trips from Paris to Beijing, and the end of a de facto U.S. travel ban in 2020 when he visited the Pentagon.
During the campaign, Subianto’s chubby-cheeked, AI-generated cartoon avatar made Korean-style finger hearts and cradled his beloved cat, Bobby, to the delight of Gen Z voters. Strategists portrayed him as a cuddly grandfather to his 36-year-old running mate.
‘I am not scary now, right?’
Rejected by human rights activists, he danced on the campaign stage and promised to generate nearly 20 million jobs in his first term if elected. His nine million Instagram followers get to see snaps from his day job, interspersed with offerings of his cats, artistic black and white portraits and vintage family photographs.
In a recent television interview, Subianto, known for his legendary temper, came across as humorous and avuncular. Referring to his time as a soldier, Subianto said, “Maybe the perception of me was that I was tough, scary. I am not scary now, right?”
Widodo’s rise from a riverside slum to the presidency has shown the vibrancy of Indonesia’s democracy in a region rife with authoritarian regimes. But with Subianto’s link to Suharto, and Widodo’s son on the ballot, some observers fear that democracy is eroding.
“He’s had so many different personas. Why would you assume that this one sticks?” said Liam Gammon, from the Australian National University (ANU). “The one thing that Prabowo brings is uncertainty.”
More than half of Indonesian voters are under 40, with limited knowledge of the darker narratives of his hardline military past and his ascent under Suharto’s autocratic rule.
Huge election ran smoothly
Voters interviewed by The Associated Press expressed hope their next leader would help them achieve greater prosperity in a country where nearly a tenth of the population still lives in poverty.
“I hope Indonesia can progress better and that I did not vote for the wrong person,” said Indra Nurohim, a 17-year-old high school student and first-time voter. “I hope we will have a better government.”
Aside from the presidency, some 20,000 national, provincial and district parliamentary posts were contested by tens of thousands of candidates in one of the world’s largest elections, which authorities said concluded with no major problems. About 10,000 aspirants from 18 political parties eyed the national parliament’s 580 seats alone.
The logistics of the vote across the tropical nation’s 17,000 islands were daunting. Ballot boxes and ballots were transported by boats, motorcycles, horses and on foot in some of the more far-flung locations.
Under Widodo, Indonesia saw a period of remarkable growth averaging five per cent annually, except in 2020, when the economy contracted due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Widodo’s economic roadmap, called “Golden Indonesia 2045,” projects Indonesia becoming one of the world’s top five economies with GDP of up to $12.2 trillion Cdn, exactly a century after it won independence from Dutch colonizers.