The North’s propaganda agencies have not previously reported on Kim’s latest direction.
South Korea’s conservative JoongAng Daily said the report’s disclosure, a rare departure from standard NIS operating procedures, was apparently aimed at undermining the North’s provocations.
North Korea’s Kim orders military to accelerate war preparations
North Korea’s Kim orders military to accelerate war preparations
The validity of the NIS report is supported by Pyongyang’s reinstatement of three key military figures in recent months.
Ri became chief of the North Korean army’s general staff for a third time in August, and Pak was appointed head of the Central Military Commission of the ruling Workers’ Party that same month.
Military reshuffles are common in North Korea, with some officials later reappearing in different positions while others disappear from view entirely.
A seventh nuclear test?
“It doesn’t make any sense that the North continues producing nuclear weapons but postpones their tests indefinitely,” Lim told This Week in Asia.
But such a test was unlikely to deliver much of a political shock to the South in an election year, he said, as many had become inured to the North’s nuclear tests given that it had carried out six since 2006.
Military clashes along tense land and sea borders, similar to the shelling of Yeonpyeong and sinking of the Cheonan, would have a greater impact on South Koreans who fear that accidental clashes could spread to a larger armed conflict amid rising tensions, Lim said.
“The North, however, knows well that military acts ahead of the April parliamentary elections would only benefit the conservatives”, who are traditionally associated with emphasising national security and defence, he added.
Hong Min, a senior researcher at the North Korean research division of the Korea Institute for National Unification think tank in Seoul, said the North was “not so desperate” to conduct further nuclear tests – and risk international repercussions – as it had accumulated considerable data from its previous experiments.
North Korea is concerned that a fresh nuclear test would undermine its booming relations with Russia and undercut China’s implicit support
“North Korea is concerned that a fresh nuclear test would undermine its booming relations with Russia and undercut China’s implicit support for its confrontational stance against the United States,” Hong said.
“It would rather wait until the end of the US presidential election in November next year to see how the next US administration decides on policies toward Pyongyang before it attempts to make use of a fresh nuclear test as a message to Washington.”
In the meantime, he said Pyongyang was more likely to continue testing its arsenal of missiles that could pose threats to US military facilities in the Pacific.
Booming Russia ties
Hong said the security situation on the Korean peninsula had become extremely dangerous due to what he called “unprecedented” US-led confrontational moves against North Korea.
The North’s official Korean Central News Agency said Kim had vowed to “expand and develop the relations of strategic cooperation with the anti-imperialist independent countries and dynamically wage the anti-imperialist joint action and struggle on an international scale”.
“This is closely related with North Korea’s efforts to increase war supplies for export to other countries including Russia and for its own needs, rather than to step up preparations to start a war against the South,” Hong said.
Why China is keeping its distance as Russia and North Korea cosy up
Why China is keeping its distance as Russia and North Korea cosy up
“The North will further strengthen military ties with Russia, while bolstering economic and ideological alliances with China [in 2024],” Yang said.