Spotlight on wages as jobs market loses heat

After several months of robust pay bumps, wage growth has likely passed its peak, slowed by a softening jobs market.

The June quarter wage price index from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, due on Tuesday, is expected to stay elevated though tapering a little on an annual basis.

In March, the wage price index rose 4.1 per cent annually, down from 4.2 per cent in December 2023.

Financial market economists expect a further weakening in the year to the end of June, with ANZ pointing to a rise of four per cent.

But on a quarterly basis, the bank’s economic team are tipping a 0.9 per cent rise, up from 0.8 per cent in the March quarter, to reflect seasonal factors as well as a pick up in newly-approved enterprise bargaining agreements.

The bureau’s wage price index, which tracks changes in the hourly rate of pay for a fixed group of jobs, will indicate the pace of underlying price pressures in the labour market at a critical point in the central bank’s price fight.

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