Here is a selection of noteworthy metrics that are worth keeping an eye on in 2024, from solar-cell technology to superhero movies. Some are merely fun — while others are potentially world-changing.
Will the cost of launching things into orbit fall further?
The cost of launching things into space has plunged over the past decade, a direct consequence of the development of reusable rockets by SpaceX, the rocket-launch company founded by Elon Musk. Its Falcon 9 rocket has a reusable booster stage, which can send a payload on its way to orbit and then return to Earth, touching down either on land or on a drone ship. Not throwing away the booster, which costs tens of millions of dollars, but instead reusing it up to 15 times, has slashed launch costs, and SpaceX now carries more to orbit than the rest of the world combined. But launch costs could soon fall even further, if two new rockets make successful flights in 2024.
The first is SpaceX’s Starship, the largest rocket ever built, which is fully reusable and can carry as much as 150 tonnes into orbit, ten times more than Falcon 9. But keep an eye, too, on Neutron, a new reusable rocket from Rocket Lab, a rival startup. It aims to be competitive on a cost-per-kilogram basis with the Falcon 9, but for smaller payloads. To open up new opportunities in space, what goes up must come down—in price.
Is enthusiasm for AI chatbots in decline?
ChatGPT attracted 100 million users within two months of its launch in November 2022, but user visits peaked in mid-2023 and have since levelled off. This may indicate flagging enthusiasm for chatbots in general. Or it may just signal that users have become more discerning, and have switched to other chatbots that are better suited to particular tasks.
Another possibility is that the mid-year decline is the result of school holidays: watch to see if the numbers tick up again in late 2023.
Will perovskite solar cells take off?
Most photovoltaic cells are made of silicon, and convert sunlight to electricity with an efficiency of about 23 per cent. Perovskite cells, which use other elements in a particular crystal structure, cost more but offer higher efficiency: over 25 per cent, and over 30 per cent when combined in a “tandem” cell with silicon.
So the extra expense can be worth it, particularly in situations where space is tight. Firms in America, Britain, South Korea and Sweden aim to start selling perovskite cells in 2024.
When will renewables overtake coal?
Renewable supplies of energy, such as solar and wind power, will soon overtake coal-fired power stations to become the world’s largest single source of electricity, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). But when? Having previously said it would be in 2025, the IEA now thinks it could happen in 2024, “as a result of the accelerated pace of renewable capacity additions” and “the plateauing of electricity generation from coal”.
Adoption of renewables in Europe has been accelerated by the war in Ukraine: EU countries added 41 gigawatts of solar capacity in 2022, and are expected to add more than 50gw in 2023. China added 107gw of solar capacity in 2022, roughly equivalent to all existing capacity in America, and is expected to have added two Americas’ worth of solar capacity in 2023.
Meanwhile, use of coal for generation rose by 1.7 per cent in 2022, as high natural-gas prices prompted gas-to-coal switching. But use of coal in Europe and America in 2023 and 2024 is predicted to drop sharply, more than offsetting a slight increase in Asia.
Will superhero films make a comeback?
Superheroes may have met their match — at the box-office, that is. In 2023 superhero films were overshadowed by Barbie, whose plastic heroine battled the patriarchy with frequent wardrobe changes, rather than superhuman powers, and Oppenheimer, a biopic of an non-super (but very clever) human.
Much speculation ensued about whether the appetite for endless superhero flicks from Marvel, and its imitators, had cooled. The scene is thus set for a showdown in 2024, when superhero releases include Captain America: Brave New World, Deadpool 3 and two Spider-Man spin-offs, El Muerto and Madame Web.
They face off against Mickey 17, Bong Joon Ho’s follow-up to Parasite; Challengers, Luca Guadagnino’s tennis drama; It Ends with Us, based on Colleen Hoover’s book; and Gladiator 2, Ridley Scott’s follow-up to his epic of 2000. Let battle commence.
Will your cup of coffee get more expensive?
Consumption of coffee is now outstripping production, according to the International Coffee Organisation. The gap could widen in 2024: extreme weather in Brazil in late 2023 may reduce harvests of arabica beans, while El Niño threatens to depress yields of robusta beans in Indonesia. Coffee producers may need to consider cultivation in new areas as the planet warms, and encourage coffee-drinkers to embrace a third species, called liberica, which is more heat-tolerant.
Will wild polio be eradicated?
2024 could be the first year without wild polio. Pakistan and Afghanistan are the last countries where the disease is endemic. Cases have dwindled and are limited to small geographical areas. Eradication programmes have a good chance of eliminating the wild virus in the coming months. The focus is shifting towards eliminating a new form of the disease, vaccine-derived polio, which is on the rise.
Will robotaxis turn the corner?
After much hype five years ago, plans for self-driving robotaxis were delayed and scaled back, as ironing out the bugs from the technology proved harder than expected. But they have since made quiet progress, with the distance between “disengagements” (mistakes requiring intervention by a safety driver) ticking up across the industry, and commercial roll-outs in more cities.
More will follow in 2024. But Americans’ trust in self-driving cars fell for the second year running in 2023, according to a survey by J.D. Power. People who have ridden in one, however, were more positive. The question for 2024 is: can robotaxis get better more quickly than perceptions of them get worse?
Will quantum computing become useful?
A race is under way to harness the spooky, counter-intuitive laws of quantum physics to build a new kind of computer. For some tasks a quantum computer could outperform any non-quantum machine that could ever be built, blazing through calculations in cryptography, chemistry and finance. But when will a useful machine arrive?
One measure of a quantum computer’s capability is its number of quantum bits, or qubits. But existing machines, which implement qubits in various different ways, all have a fatal flaw: the delicate quantum states on which they depend “decohere” after a fraction of a second.
A better measure may be so-called “quantum volume” (QV), which depends on the “width” of a computer (its number of qubits) and its “depth” (the number of operations they can perform before decohering). A computer with 14 qubits that is able to execute 14 operations is said to have a QV of 2 to the power of 14, or 16,384.
The maximum QV achieved is rising steadily, but the volume needed to perform useful operations, not just small-scale tests, remains unclear. IBM, a leader in the field, has set itself a QV target of 2 to the power of 100. Like artificial intelligence, which disappointed for decades before its sudden, spectacular success, quantum computing is likely to go from useless to ubiquitous very quickly — just as soon as researchers figure out how to turn up the volume.
Will the number of coups continue to rise?
Coups are back, and in sub-Saharan Africa in particular, after a lull in the 2010s. You can walk from the Red Sea to the Atlantic entirely within countries that have had coups in the past three years. Of 18 attempted coups since 2021, nine have succeeded. Coups tend to occur for one of two reasons: either a collapse of security, as in Niger and Mali, where generals claimed to be restoring order; or when an unpopular leader outstays his welcome, as in Gabon.
Instability in the Sahel shows no sign of abating, so further coups are possible. But where? Analysts at BMI, a research firm, reckon South Sudan is at most risk, followed by the Central African Republic, much of which is no longer under government control. SBM Intelligence, a Nigerian firm, reckons the chances are highest in the Democratic Republic of Congo. And keep an eye on Equatorial Guinea, which is ruled by Africa’s longest-standing leader, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, now 81 years old. A succession crisis could trigger a coup.
When will China take the lead in car exports?
The switch to electric vehicles has reshaped the car industry. In many ways, EVs have more in common with smartphones on wheels than they do with combustion-engine vehicles; they contain fewer moving parts and are mechanically much less complex.
Incumbent manufacturers, which excel at building engines and gearboxes, have lost their competitive advantage. Chinese manufacturers spotted an opening — and have charged into it.
Some time in 2024 China will overtake Germany and Japan to become the world’s largest car exporter, driven by demand for EVs. Admittedly, Chinese car exports include a lot of vehicles made by Tesla, an American firm, in its Chinese factory. But Tesla, the world’s biggest maker of EVs, will be overtaken by BYD, a Chinese firm, which will sell more vehicles, both within China and globally.