SAN FRANCISCO — The NBA season is a quarter of the way through, which is around the time coach Steve Kerr feels comfortable enough to hand down some judgments and declarations for where his Warriors team is at.
Through 20 games, the Warriors had a 6-2 start, a six-game losing streak, a five-game suspension and two 20-plus-point blown leads. Kerr can draw a simple conclusion through this 9-11 start: Right now, they’re pretty mediocre.
“We are what our record says, as Bill Parcells used to say,” Kerr said on Tuesday. “We need to get better and we know that. We have 62 games left.”
Those 20 games boil down to mediocrity, but there have been some highs, lows and downright ugly truths that may arise over the course of the next 62 games. Here’s a breakdown of the Warriors at a quarter-way through.
THE GOOD
The depth
A combination of strong drafting, player evolution and sacrifice makes this bench unit as strong as it has been over the last three seasons. That starts with Chris Paul accepting a role off the bench for the first time in his 19-year career, a sacrifice that elevates the second unit’s impact and allows the Warriors to run their usual starting five of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green and Kevon Looney (though, that starting lineup may be tweaked as the season goes).
But the Warriors’ most glaring issue has been a lack of youth and athleticism that matches up with some of the league’s emerging frontrunners such as the Thunder, Kings and Timberwolves. The Warriors’ best changeup against some of those teams has come from younger second-unit guys that match up, such as Moses Moody, Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski.
People with the team were intent that their success could be determined by Moody and Kuminga taking a Year 3 leap. Between some limited opportunities minutes-wise, Moody has risen through the cracks, shooting 49% from the field and 37.5% from 3 in 18.8 minutes per game. Kuminga’s performance has fluctuated, but in flashes gives the Warriors a legitimate threat for crafty finishes at the rim and one-on-one defense against opposing wings.
The rookie Podziemski is attempting to make himself irreplaceable despite his spot on the rotation’s fringe — something Draymond Green did early in his career. At his best, he looks like he can be the kind of downhill force they’re missing without Jordan Poole, but on top of that can execute little winning plays and sees the floor like a seasoned veteran.
Steph Curry
At age 35, Curry is proving he is still one of the best and most impactful players in the NBA. Curry’s dominance can be glossed over as a given — it’s Steph Curry — but his consistency and brilliance are the most important elements to the Warriors’ title hopes.
Every title contender needs a superstar playing at his best, and Curry is at his best. He can walk into a 20-plus-point game even on his bad days.
Curry’s scoring average (29.1) ranks seventh in the league, just fractions away from the top five with Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid (32) and Dallas’ Luka Doncic (31.4). He leads the league with 91 total 3-pointers made, far ahead of second-place Doncic with 69, shooting 43.1% from beyond the arc.
If the Warriors get their season together, Curry could be in line for a third MVP. More importantly for Curry, he has shown he can still carry Golden State to the Finals. All he needs is for his teammates to be close behind.
THE BAD
No second scorer
The difference between being good and great lies in the gap between Curry and the rest. Wiggins and Thompson, paid to be secondary scorers after Curry, have been too slow to start their seasons.
Kerr brushed aside the idea that the lack of a second scorer has held them back.
“We won a championship a year-and-a-half ago with basically the same core group,” Kerr said. “A couple of different role players, but we filled those holes really well. Every team is built a little differently and we are built differently. We just have to adapt to who we are and I don’t necessarily think we need a second scorer type. But we have to play better and find better combinations.”
Timely games from the scorers around Curry fueled their 2022 success. Jordan Poole went through hot stretches and Wiggins was named an All-Star starter, shooting a career-high 39.6% from 3. Once Thompson returned midseason, they weren’t desperate for him to return to form and save them. Poole and Wiggins earned extensions for their growth.
So far, Curry hasn’t gotten that kind of help consistently. Wiggins is responsible for guarding the opposing teams’ best player, but teammates want to see him use his length and skill to attack the basket more regularly. Like he did in the 2022 playoff run. Instead, through most of the season he has faded into the background and dragged down every minute he’s played. The team is being outscored by 87 points total when he’s on the court and is plus-94 when he’s off the court.
Thompson’s struggles appear more dire when comparing him to the player he was before his two major injuries. He can’t defend quicker players like he used to and has lost luster and consistency as a shooter. He’s shooting 36.1% from 3 and taking some ill-timed shots in search of his hot hand again.
If Wiggins and Thompson don’t catch up to their old selves, the Warriors have movable contracts and assets to swing a trade for a bonafide second scorer at the deadline. Trade or not, a handful will need to step up and fill the gap if they want to climb into true contention.
THE UGLY
Complacency
Perhaps the most alarming moment this season came after the Warriors’ 22-point blown lead against the Clippers over the weekend. The sting of a gut-wrenching loss didn’t seem to faze the Warriors’ mainstays. Instead, Kerr came to the podium optimistic. As he has said after most of the team’s losses, the blueprint for success is there.
“To me, it felt like we deserved to win today,” he said, adding that the team’s low turnover and foul count indicated a move in the right direction. But how good can progress be if it amounts to losses?
Complacency in response to losing is perhaps the most bizarre and ugly part of this 9-11 start. You’d expect a team with championship aspirations to leave a bad loss fired up rather than accepting and calm.
Maybe that’s just veteran composure and earned confidence. When it comes to championship runs, they’ve been there and done that — bumps in the road that used to be catastrophic barely register as long as they stick to the tried-and-true recipe for success. But if the losses keep piling up, when does result overtake process as this team’s biggest concern?
Maybe the blueprint turns into something real and beautiful. But so far, the Warriors’ success is only good on paper.