Trey Lance vs. Sam Darnold as backup for Purdy

SANTA CLARA — It turns out the three-way quarterback battle to lead the 49ers in 2023 is down to two.

And that’s to determine if Kyle Shanahan’s backup to Brock Purdy is Trey Lance or Sam Darnold.

Forget the fact that the 49ers once traded an obscene amount of draft capital to Miami just to move up from No. 12 to No. 3 and get Lance. Although they traded first-round picks in 2021, 2022 and 2023 and a third-round pick in 2022 for their supposed quarterback of the future, the NFL is a fast moving train.

Circumstances derailed Lance’s seemingly inevitable ascension. Here we are in Year 3, with the 49ers still not exactly sure what they have in Lance to the point where they signed Darnold, a former No. 3 pick himself, as insurance.

Just as they brought back Jimmy Garoppolo back as insurance a year ago because there was no way to know if Lance would thrive as an NFL starter.

The 49ers have been hedging their bets with Lance ever since he joined the team.

With five regular season wins, two playoff wins and a knack for executing the offense the way Shanahan envisions it, Purdy was always going to be QB1 if healthy. Purdy is more healthy than anyone thought he’d be following elbow surgery.

The signings of Garoppolo first and Darnold later could be viewed as buyer’s remorse on the part of Shanahan regarding Lance. Yet one of the most interesting things about training camp is that Lance is beginning to look like the prospect the 49ers thought he was back in 2021 and he’s still only 23.

If Lance ever looked this good as a rookie, he would have started over Garoppolo. And if he looked this good last year, the 49ers never would have brought back Garoppolo. If Shanahan knew Lance would play like this in training camp, they wouldn’t have signed Darnold and been content with getting Brandon Allen as a No. 3.

But Darnold is here and is being paid $4.5 million. He’s had his ups and downs in camp, but Darnold looks as if he could be a project resurrected by the Shanahan system and the 49ers’ offensive talent base.

Which is why next week’s joint practices in Las Vegas against the Raiders on Thursday and Friday will be a big test to see if Lance or Darnold emerges as Purdy’s backup when the regular season begins on Sept. 10 in Pittsburgh.

At this point, it’s too close to call. Purdy has gotten all the reps with the first team, with Lance and Darnold alternating days going with the second and third teams.

Lance’s first two seasons were marred by a broken finger on his throwing hand which altered his mechanics and a broken ankle last September that needed a clean-up surgery. He is throwing the ball better now, with help from quarterback guru Jeff Christensen and some counsel from the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes.

Don’t bother quizzing Lance about his  mechanics and throwing motion. He’s always seemed amused by the topic. All Lance knows at this point is how he feels mentally and physically. While going from the anointed franchise quarterback to a potential No. 3 would seem to be a career setback, Lance professes otherwise.

“I guess I wouldn’t put it that way. For me, nothing’s changed the last three years,” Lance said. “I feel like I’ve attacked it the same way. I feel like I’m in a much better spot, myself personally this year, than I have been the past two years. But mindset-wise, mentally for me, I feel like if I’m not putting that same pressure on myself in practice, then the game’s a lot harder.”

While Lance still misses the occasional short timing pass, he’s throwing with more confidence everywhere else. He also is showing the foot speed to get outside when things break down, whereas in limited opportunities the last two years he was running more up the middle.

To go with Lance at No. 2 would require more of an adjustment for Shanahan than going from Purdy to Darnold, given his catalogue of plays would be at least slightly different.

Shanahan was ready and willing to move on from the more robotic Garoppolo and overhaul his system when the more dynamic Lance was drafted in 2021. Seeing the precise, fluid and confident Purdy changed the equation.

Darnold can move as well, but is more likely execute the offense to Shanahan’s specifications in the passing game. Given that Darnold has been sabotaged in terms of coaches and coordinators, he’s enjoying immersing himself in a proven system.

Since 2018, Darnold has had four head coaches (Todd Bowles, Adam Gase, Matt Rhule, Steve Wilks) and five offensive coordinators (Jeremy Bates, Dowell Loggains, Joe Brady, Jeff Nixon, Ben McAdoo).

Mixed messages have given way to a sense of clarity.