SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – MARCH 31: Jonathan Kuminga #00 of the Golden State Warriors slam dunks … [+]
The 2023-2024 NBA season is still a few months away, but that doesn’t mean fans aren’t already crossing their fingers and hoping for some of their young players to take a leap this year.
Here are three big men who could all make some noise for their respective team this season.
Onyeka Okongwu, Atlanta Hawks
Okongwu is stepping into his fourth, and probably most crucial, year of his short career so far. He was selected sixth overall in the 2020 NBA draft, and has spent his career primarily as a back-up, starting just 28 out of 178 games.
However, Okongwu is routinely plays a caliber of basketball that indicates he’s ready for more. A bigger role, more minutes, more shots, more responsibility, you name it. At 6’8, he might be a smidge undersized as a center, but that hasn’t kept him from being an elite per-minute shot-blocker, and a tremendous rebounder.
Adjusted to Per36 minutes, Okongwu has swatted over two shots per game in every single season, and this past year he grabbed 11.2 rebounds. He’s also trending upwards in his scoring, having improved his per-minute production every year, scoring 9.9 points in 23.1 minutes last year.
His scoring bumps have been mostly modest jumps, but it’s all part of a pattern of continuous improvement.
What’s interesting about the above numbers is that they don’t even do him justice. Okongwu has great instincts on the floor, he’s quick to spot and react to patterns, and it isn’t inconceivable to imagine him as a starting big man in the NBA, playing 30-plus minutes per night.
He’s already up for an extension this summer, but if he’s to back up Clint Capela for another year, odds are good he’ll find himself in restricted free agency next summer. That’s not a situation the Hawks should want, as there definitely should be teams out there willing to make a major bet on the 22-year-old, particularly is he is to make yet another series of improvements in 2023-2024.
Paul Reed, Philadelphia 76ers
Unlike Okongwu, Paul Reed’s pending future success isn’t as straightforward. He’s playing behind the league’s MVP in Joel Embiid, and the Sixers signed Mo Bamba, whole re-signing Montrezl Harrell. That means Reed will need to consistently outplay two players to win the spot as full-time back-up center.
However, Reed has some positional fluidity to make use of. At 6’9, and roughly 220 pounds, Reed is agile and knows how to move his body quickly and efficiently. That should allow the defensive-oriented big man to slide down to the four spot, despite his lack of shooting range.
Defensively, Nick Nurse can get away with plenty of wonky lineups featuring Reed, and that’s part of why he should be considered as a break-out candidate. Reed could see a bump in minutes, and given that his per-minute defensive production over three years (12.1 rebounds, 2.6 steals, and 2.3 blocks Per36 minutes) has always been incredibly high, it’s worth looking ahead with a certain level of expectation.
Reed will need to come back after this summer with a few more tricks up his sleeve offensively if he is to become more than what he is now. A reliable jumper, and a more patient approach, to avoid over-fouling, would go a long way.
But with Philadelphia investing in him, to the tune of $23.5 million over three years, and with the creative Nurse taking over as head coach, there’s a strong path for minutes for Reed, which shouldn’t be discounted.
Jonathan Kuminga, Golden State Warriors
This one could admittedly go either way. We’ve seen the Warriors ditch youth for veteran production, due to the presence of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green – the trio it’s all about in San Francisco.
Kuminga isn’t part of that core, and he won’t ever become a part of that. He’s the next generation, and his development has reached the point where it needs to be taken seriously. Head coach Steve Kerr has one of the league’s most explosive young big men on his roster, heading into Year 3, and it’s time to carve out minutes for the 6’9 forward for a few reasons.
One, Kuminga could help the team generate opportunities in transition, and inject some much-needed athleticism into the lineup.
Two, he could shave off a few minutes for the older generation, so they have fresher legs for the postseason.
Kuminga has always been active, dating back to his rookie season. He’ll attack the basket relentlessly, put up points on solid efficiency (9.6 points in 18.8 minutes on 51.9% shooting for his career), and he’ll have opponents constantly scan for his movement due to his ability to catch lobs, and cut off the ball.
This could the year he begins to put all of his physical tools together with what he’s learned over the years from his seasoned teammates. The Warriors need him to do it, and he’s been desperate for a shot to prove himself consistently. This year seems like it could be the start of something new.
Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.