Former U.S. president Donald Trump scored a record-setting win in the Iowa caucuses on Monday night with his rivals languishing far behind, a victory that sent a resounding message that the Republicans’ 2024 presidential nomination is his to lose.
Trump was on track to set a record for a contested Iowa Republican caucus with a margin of victory exceeding the nearly 13 percentage points that Bob Dole won by in 1988.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis finished a distant second ahead of Nikki Haley, a former United Nations ambassador and South Carolina governor.
In what was expected to be a low-turnout affair, caucusgoers endured life-threatening cold and dangerous driving conditions to meet in hundreds of schools, churches and community centres across the state.
Haley plans to compete vigorously in New Hampshire, where she hopes to be more successful with the state’s Independent voters heading into the Jan. 23 primary.
DeSantis, meanwhile, is heading straight to South Carolina, a conservative stronghold where the Feb. 24 contest could prove pivotal.
Trump, who has repeatedly vowed vengeance against his political opponents in recent months, offered a message of unity in a victory speech Monday night.
“We want to come together, whether it’s Republican or Democrat or liberal or conservative,” Trump said. “We’re going to come together. It’s going to happen soon.”
Trump has spent much of the past year building a far more professional organization in Iowa than the relatively haphazard effort he oversaw in 2016, when Texas Sen. Ted Cruz carried the caucuses.
His team paid special attention to building a sophisticated digital and data operation to regularly engage with potential supporters and ensure they knew how to participate in the caucuses.
Trump was expected to fly to New York on Monday night so he could be in court on Tuesday, as a jury is poised to consider whether he should pay additional damages to a columnist who last year won a $5 million US jury award against him for sex abuse and defamation.
He will then fly to New Hampshire, the next state in the Republican primary calendar, to hold a rally on Tuesday evening.
Trump showed significant strength among urban, small-town and rural communities, according to The Associated Press’s results tabulator, AP VoteCast.
He also performed well with evangelical Christians and those without a college degree. And a majority of caucusgoers said that they identify with Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement. One relative weakness for Trump comes in the suburbs, where only about four in 10 supported him.
AP VoteCast is a survey of more than 1,500 voters who said they planned to take part in the caucuses. The survey is conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.
Iowa has been an uneven predictor of who will ultimately lead Republicans into the general election.
George W. Bush’s 2000 victory was the last time a Republican candidate won in Iowa and went on to become the party’s standard-bearer.
Former U.S. president Donald Trump handily won the Iowa caucuses, but the second-place result could have a big impact. The National’s Adrienne Arsenault talks to three American journalists about why Republicans and Democrats are watching the results in Iowa.
Ramaswamy drops out
Biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy said on Monday that he is suspending his 2024 Republican presidential campaign after a disappointing finish in Iowa’s leadoff caucuses.
Ramaswamy, 38, endorsed Trump.
He has previously called Trump the “best president of the 21st century,” even as he tried to convince Republican voters that they should opt for “fresh legs” and “take our America First agenda to the next level.”
The wealthy political outsider also modelled his own bid on Trump’s run, campaigning as a fast-talking, headline-grabbing populist who relentlessly needled opponents.
Former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson was also on the ballot in Iowa, as was former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, who suspended his campaign last week.
Trump favoured despite legal battles
Trump’s success tells a remarkable story of a Republican Party unwilling or unable to move on from a flawed front-runner.
He lost to Biden in 2020 after fuelling near-constant chaos while in the White House, culminating with his supporters carrying out a deadly attack on the U.S. Capitol. In total, he faces 91 felony charges across four criminal cases.
The U.S. Supreme Court is weighing whether states have the ability to block Trump from the ballot for his role in sparking the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol.
And he’s facing criminal trials in Washington and Atlanta for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election.
Through it all, Trump has intentionally used his legal problems as a political asset. Over the last week alone, Trump chose to leave the campaign trail on two separate occasions to make voluntary appearances before judges in New York and Washington.
In both cases, he addressed the media directly afterward, ensuring that national coverage of his legal drama would make it more difficult for his Republican rivals to break through in Iowa.
Trump has also increasingly echoed authoritarian leaders and framed his campaign as one of retribution. He has spoken openly about using the power of government to pursue his political enemies.
He has repeatedly harnessed rhetoric once used by Adolf Hitler to argue that immigrants entering the U.S. illegally are “poisoning the blood of our country.” And he recently shared a word cloud last week to his social media account highlighting “revenge,” “power” and “dictatorship.”
Trump’s legal challenges appear to have done little damage to his reputation as the charges are seen through a political lens.
About three-quarters say the charges against Trump are political attempts to undermine him, rather than legitimate attempts to investigate important issues, according to AP VoteCast.
Three appeals court judges grilled a Trump lawyer on his argument that former U.S. president Donald Trump had presidential immunity when trying to subvert the 2020 election results, and the assertion that the charges against him should be dismissed.
Chilly night for caucusgoers
Iowa caucus participants were forced to brave the coldest temperatures in caucus history as forecasters warned that “dangerously cold wind chills” as low as –43 C were possible through noon Tuesday.
The conditions, according to the National Weather Service, could lead to “frostbite and hypothermia in a matter of minutes if not properly dressed for the conditions.”
The winter weather, intimidating even for Iowa, may have made an unrepresentative process even less representative.
Only a tiny portion of the participants will be voters of colour, given Iowa’s overwhelmingly white population, a fact that helped persuade Democrats to shift their opening primary contest to South Carolina this year. Iowa’s caucuses are also playing out on Martin Luther King Day, a federal holiday.
The Democrats changed the party’s primary calendar for 2024, delaying its Iowa caucus until Super Tuesday on March 5, when 16 states and the territory of American Samoa hold primary elections and caucuses, in order to prioritize South Carolina — a pivotal state for Biden’s 2020 nomination campaign.
Although the South Carolina primary is slated for Feb. 3, the New Hampshire Democratic Party is defying the Democratic National Committee and holding its primary ahead of that on Jan. 23, the same day as the Republican primary, to maintain its tradition of being the first-in-the-nation primary vote.
Day 69:17What the Iowa Caucuses mean for the future of the Republican Party
The Iowa Republican presidential caucuses will be held on Monday in what’s long been considered the first major test of Republican presidential contenders. This year the state’s influential contingent of Evangelical Christian are mostly backing Donald Trump. Republican pollster Whit Ayres [airs, rhymes with flares] weighs in on the caucuses and the Republican presidential race.