Topline
Former President Donald Trump’s most recent indictment in Georgia appears to have helped his standing among Iowa Republican voters, according to a new poll that found Trump leads Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis by 23 points in Iowa, less than five months before the state will kick off the GOP presidential primary contests.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a rally at the Steer N’ Stein bar at the Iowa State … [+]
Key Facts
The poll, conducted by Selzer and Co. polling firm for NBC News, the Des Moines Register and Mediacom from August 13-17, found Trump leading DeSantis 38% to 20% in the days before Trump’s indictment on August 14 in the Georgia election interference case.
In the following days, Trump’s lead increased to 43% versus 18% for DeSantis.
Overall, the poll found 42% of the 406 likely Republican caucusgoers surveyed (margin of error 4.9) plan to support Trump, compared to 19% who said they plan to support DeSantis.
Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) is polling in third place with support from 9% of likely GOP caucusgoers, followed by former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and former Vice President Mike Pence, each with 6%, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 5% and biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy with 4%, the survey found.
The survey shows that the race may be “closer than it first may seem,” president of the polling firm, J. Ann Selzer, told the Register, which noted 52% of respondents said they could change their mind about who to support, and 55% of respondents are weighing four or more options about who to vote for.
Big Number
63%. That’s the share of respondents who said Trump is their first or second choice or that they’re actively considering him, similar to the 61% who said the same for DeSantis.
What To Watch For
The Iowa caucus, which kicks off the GOP presidential primary contests, is set for January 15.
Key Background
Trump’s lead in the 2024 GOP presidential primary contest has continued to grow with each of his four indictments this year, beginning with his hush-money case in Manhattan Criminal Court in March. Last week, a Georgia grand jury indicted him on 13 felony counts, bringing the total number of criminal charges he faces to 91, in connection with his efforts to subvert the election results in the state. He and his 18 co-defendants, who were each charged with racketeering, among other crimes, are required to surrender in Fulton County, Georgia before Friday at noon.
Surprising Fact
Trump has never been viewed more favorably by Iowa Republican caucus participants, according to the Register, even as DeSantis has poured resources into campaigning there and Trump has openly attacked Iowa’s Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds, who has abstained from endorsing any particular GOP presidential candidate.
Further Reading
Trump Confirms He Won’t Do GOP Primary Debates As He Brags About ‘Legendary’ Polling Numbers (Forbes)
Trump Will Interview With Tucker Carlson Instead Of Attending Debate, Report Says (Forbes)
DeSantis Debate Strategy Memo Suggests That He Defend Trump, Attack Ramaswamy And Avoid Policy Talk (Forbes)