The summit is aimed at building on Zelensky’s 10-point peace plan, key elements of which call for the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and the withdrawal of Russian troops.
Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political science and international relations professor at Thailand’s Chulalongkorn University, said there were two major factors for Southeast Asian countries to consider regarding attendance at the summit.
Firstly, the event was intended to be “pro-Ukraine and not pro-Russia” and the other consideration was the desire of some countries “not to miss the boat and to be counted at a major gathering like this peace summit”, Pongsudhirak said.
Pongsudhirak noted that summit attendee Singapore had imposed sanctions against Russia, while East Timor was likely to use the event to “bolster its reputation” ahead of its prospective membership in Asean.
Thailand’s planned attendance at the summit was aimed at regaining its international standing after a new civilian government took over following years of military rule, Pongsudhirak said.
Malaysia has also called for strong measures against Myanmar’s generals, saying that the junta had blocked a plan to restore peace since it seized power in February 2021 from the country’s elected civilian leaders.
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China urged to help end Ukraine war by President Volodymyr Zelensky at Shangri-La Dialogue
China urged to help end Ukraine war by President Volodymyr Zelensky at Shangri-La Dialogue
Hoo Chiew Ping, co-founder of the East Asian International Relations Caucus and visiting scholar at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University, said the participation of Southeast Asian countries at the summit would “demonstrate their commitment to global solidarity for peace, transcending ideological boundaries”.
Dedi Dinarto, a lead analyst on Indonesia issues at strategic advisory firm Global Counsel, said the attendance of Southeast Asian countries at the summit was likely driven by their desire to understand Ukraine’s peace proposal.
“The geopolitical impact of the war, particularly its effect on food prices, creates external pressure on these countries, many of which are food importers. This pressure might motivate them to participate in the forum,” Dinarto said.
The Ukraine war was among the top geopolitical concerns in Southeast Asia, according to a recent ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute survey. Citizens of the region were worried about the impact on food and energy prices from the war, the survey’s findings showed.
Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of wheat and sunflower oil, both of which are staples in Southeast Asia.
Without Russia’s participation, however, some Southeast Asian countries might skip the summit over doubts that it would bring significant changes in the Ukraine war, Dinarto said.
“Ultimately, each Southeast Asian country’s decision to attend or not attend the summit is influenced by a combination of domestic and external pressures.”