Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is about to announce sanctions on Chinese companies suspected of assisting Russia’s war in Ukraine, government sources say, even with Kishida yet to unveil the plan at the G7 summit in Italy.
Analysts say such sanctions would be unprecedented for Japan and warn they could provoke a significant response from China, which has already hinted at retaliatory action that could impact Japan’s economy.
“China would feel obliged to respond,” said James Brown, a professor of international relations specialising in Russian affairs at the Tokyo campus of Temple University.
“It might not be in the form of sanctions on Japanese companies, but they could react asymmetrically. A few years ago, for example, Beijing halted exports of rare earths to Japan and they could do the same again.”
National broadcaster NHK quoted “sources close to the government” on Wednesday as saying that Tokyo is considering sanctions on foreign firms and organisations that are providing material to Russia that could be converted to military use. The sanctions could include a ban on exports from Japanese firms.
Earlier this year, the United States expressed concern about Chinese exports of nitrocellulose – used in the manufacturing of ammunition – to Russia.
The NHK report said Kishida would present his decision to G7 leaders during this week’s summit. Kishida said at the summit on Thursday that Japan continued to mull such sanctions, not just on China but also India, Kazakhstan, the United Arab Emirates and Uzbekistan.
“Japan has not done anything like this before, at any level, so this would be setting a massive precedent that hawks could seize on in the future to put pressure on other companies and governments,” Brown said.
And while NHK quoted “observers” as saying that the move “would encourage China to act responsibly for global peace and stability”, Brown fears it would result in retaliatory economic measures.
China has already indicated it would not sit idly should Japan impose sanctions, urging Japan to “adopt a rational attitude” in a Wednesday opinion piece in Global Times, a daily tabloid that is an arm of People’s Daily, the Communist Party’s mouthpiece.
The commentary accused Japan of bending to the United States and concluded with a warning that sanctions will weigh on Japan’s economy and the “development of China-Japan economic ties will suffer”.
“If [the government] goes ahead with sanctions, it is a step in the right direction. But my impression is that they are reluctant to go that far, even under pressure from the US,” said Yoichi Shimada, a professor of international relations at Fukui Prefectural University.
It is also critical that Japan provides evidence of inappropriate action by any Chinese firms that are the target of sanctions, he said, as it is “inevitable” that Beijing will issue a blanket denial of improper deals.
“Escalation is also inevitable so it will be important to act in coordination with the US and the G7 nations.”
Temple University’s Brown believes that Tokyo is closely monitoring Beijing’s reaction and might settle for limited restrictions on a limited number of companies that can clearly be shown to have been assisting Russia.
“If it’s a small number, if they are not state companies and if it’s clear they are a bit dodgy, then it is possible that China will be willing to shrug it off,” he said.