Part of the problem is that Israel lacks the manpower to hold and administer large parts of Gaza. The country of just under 10 million people mobilised a record 350,000 reservists soon after the war started in October – something that strained its economy. It released most of them late last year or in early 2024, leaving around 150,000 regular troops.
Israel’s slow-walk in Rafah opens door to full-on offensive
“You have to clear and hold,” former US General David Petraeus, who commanded armies in Iraq and Afghanistan, said at the Qatar Economic Forum. “If you don’t keep the enemy from reconstituting and keep it from getting back into the population, this is going to happen endlessly. You’ll just clear and have to re-clear and re-clear.”
Petraeus said the US experience of urban warfare in Iraq showed you had to “keep the enemy away from the people” by ensuring aid got to devastated areas quickly and by maintaining security when fighting stopped.
He cited Al Shifa hospital, one of the largest in Gaza, and said the Israel Defense Forces should have held onto it after battling Hamas and turned it into “a great medical centre.”
Blinken said the fighting in the north of Gaza in recent days underscored the need for a “day after” strategy. Petraeus, who was in Israel about a month ago and regularly speaks to serving officials there, echoed those words, saying: “I don’t see a midterm plan.”
Israel said it doesn’t want to occupy Gaza and has suggested Arab countries can provide peacekeepers when the war ends. But no government has said it will consider that.
“Nobody wants to take over territory that’s essentially ruled by thugs right now, gang members and remnants of Hamas,” said Petraeus, who’s a partner at private equity giant KKR & Co.
Gallant criticism
Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant on Wednesday voiced frustration at the government’s lack of post-war planning for Gaza.
In unusually bold comments by a senior official, Gallant challenged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to rule out an Israeli military occupation of Gaza, which he told reporters would be “dangerous” for the country.
He said “indecision” would leave only that option or keeping Hamas in charge.
“The responsibility to dismantle Hamas and to retain full freedom of operation in the Gaza Strip rests on the defence establishment and the IDF,” Gallant said. “Yet it depends on the creation of a governing alternative in Gaza, which rests on the shoulders of the Israeli government.”
Benny Gantz, another member of the war cabinet and a former head of the Israeli military, said Gallant “speaks the truth.”
Netanyahu rejected Gallant’s demands, saying Israel needed to focus on destroying Hamas before addressing post-war scenarios. He earlier told CNBC he favours “a non-Hamas civilian administration there, with an Israeli military responsibility.”
Rafah operations
Israel launched a bombardment of Gaza after fighters from Hamas – designated a terrorist organisation by the US and European Union – swarmed into southern Israeli communities on October 7, killing 1,200 people and taking about 250 hostages. Israel’s air campaign and a ground assault have killed more than 35,000 Palestinians, according to the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza.
Israeli troops initially concentrated on northern parts of the Mediterranean enclave, including the biggest urban area of Gaza City, before moving south. They’re now mostly focused on Rafah, a city on the border with Egypt that’s housing more than one million civilians, or roughly half Gaza’s population.
Last week, Israel told civilians in parts of Rafah to leave ahead of a possible full-on assault. Around 450,000 of them have moved north toward tented camps that Israel has declared safe zones, according to the United Nations.
The US and other countries, fearing mass casualties, have tried to convince Israel not to attack Rafah. Netanyahu says it’s necessary to defeat the last of Hamas’s battalions, with several thousand fighters thought to be in the city.