Next Sunday Australians will know whether an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice will be enshrined in the country’s Constitution.
More than 17 million Australians are registered to vote in the first referendum since 1999, and already more than a million people have cast their ballots.
While the polls suggest Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s key post-election promise is set to fail, there are still questions about what it is we are being asked to vote on.
Here are 14 things you need to know about the Voice.
1. What are we voting on?
Australians are being asked to vote Yes or No to a single question: “A proposed law: to alter the Constitution to recognise the First Peoples of Australia by establishing an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice. Do you approve this proposed alteration?”
If a majority of people in a majority of States vote Yes, the Australian Constitution would be rewritten to state that the Voice “may make representations to the Parliament and executive government on matters relating to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples”.
Mr Albanese says people are being asked to vote on two things: “One, to recognise a fact — that there were people here before 1788.
“And the second thing is a non-binding advisory committee that may give advice on matters that affect Indigenous people.”
Voters should only write Yes or No on the ballot paper.
2. Why are we voting on this now?
The concept of listening to Indigenous voices has a history stretching back to the 1920s. Former PM John Howard committed to constitutional recognition in 2007, and former Australian leaders Julia Gillard, Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull have each established groups in the years since to investigate.
It came to a head in 2015 when the Liberal government asked a referendum council for advice on how Indigenous Australians could be acknowledged in the Constitution.
After two years of meetings — led by Aunty Pat Anderson, Megan Davis and Noel Pearson — a group of 250 Indigenous leaders met at Uluru in 2017.
It was there they called for constitutionally enshrining an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice in the one-page Uluru Statement from the Heart.
The government at the time rejected the call, claiming it would become a “third chamber” of Parliament. Instead, it established its own Voice co-design group, led by professors Tom Calma and Marcia Langton, to develop models for a legislated Voice.
Its final report in 2021 proposed a “national body of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander members tasked to advise the Australian Parliament and Government” on “matters of national significance” to Indigenous Australians.
In 2023, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has continued calls to delay the vote and pivot to asking Australians to vote on recognition only, and legislate the Voice.
The Prime Minister’s response has been simple: “If not now, when?”
It’s a message he’s repeated throughout the campaign.
“It has been 122 years. We are the only former colony in the world that does not acknowledge its First Peoples, and what this is about is just doing that in a safe, generous way,” he said on Thursday.
3. How does a referendum work?
Former prime minister Robert Menzies famously remarked “to get an affirmative vote from the Australian people on a referendum proposal is a labour of Hercules”, after he failed to get his referendum banning communism passed in 1951.
Referendums are historically hard to pass — only eight of the 44 referendums since Federation in 1901 have been successful — all of which had bipartisan support.
The last one to pass was in 1977, when the Territories gained the right to vote in referendums.
Australians voted overwhelmingly in 1967 to count Indigenous Australians in the population and gave the Federal government power to make laws for Indigenous Australians.
In order to change the Constitution, a majority of people and a majority of States have to vote Yes.
It means more than 50 per cent of the population in four of Australia’s six States need to vote in favour.
Votes in the NT and ACT count only in the national vote.
4. What happens if it succeeds?
If the Voice wins the double majority, the Constitution will be amended to include the following:
Chapter IX Recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples.
129 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice.
In recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Peoples of Australia:
i. there shall be a body, to be called the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice;
ii. the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice may make representations to the Parliament and the executive government of the Commonwealth on matters relating to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples;
iii. the Parliament shall, subject to this Constitution, have power to make laws with respect to matters relating to the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice, including its composition, functions, powers and procedures.
What the Voice would look like, including who would be appointed and how that decision would be made, would be a matter for the Australian Parliament.
For example, the Parliament could decide to have 24 members at first, and in five years decide that number should increase to 32. That will always remain a matter for the Parliament.
Having a Voice enshrined in the Constitution ensures there is always some form of Indigenous representative body.
5. What happens if it fails?
Mr Albanese has been reluctant to talk about what might happen in the event of a No vote, beyond saying a vote for No is a vote for the “status quo”.
But leading Yes campaigner Noel Pearson says there is no “Plan B” if the Voice fails: “No will be a disaster for us. We will all lose. If we vote Yes, we’ll all win.”
Meanwhile, Mr Dutton previously said he would hold a second referendum if elected, but later walked back his pledge after his Indigenous Australians spokeswoman Jacinta Nampijinpa Price rubbished the idea.
Mr Dutton this week said he would have “a lot more to say in relation to these matters in the run-up to the next election”.
6. The state of Indigenous affairs
The latest Productivity Commission report revealed just four of 17 Closing the Gap targets — a bid to improve the lives of Indigenous Australians — are “on track”.
Alarmingly, the gap is widening in four target areas: childhood development, incarceration rates, children in out-of-home care and suicide rates.
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people make up just 3 per cent of the population, but are being imprisoned at 14 times the rate of non-Indigenous people.
It’s a similar case for Indigenous kids in out-of-home care. They make up about 43 per cent of children in out-of-home care.
Some progress is being made on the remaining initiatives, but it’s not enough to meet the 2031 targets.
7. The western front
WA is considered in the bag for the No camp, along with Queensland, meaning the vote’s success is likely to hinge on South Australia.
But Yes campaign director Dean Parkin told The Sunday Times in September he believed WA could still be won.
“We always knew there would be an opposing case and referendums aren’t easy to win — history shows that,” he said.
“That said, we believe there is a larger undecided group of people there in Western Australia who are willing to be convinced to vote Yes.”
And The Bunbury Herald found itself at the centre of national attention last month when it broke the news Yes advocate Professor Langton said the No cause was driven by racism.
“Every time the No cases raise their arguments, if you start pulling it apart you get down to base racism — I’m sorry to say that’s where it lands — or sheer stupidity,” she told a forum in Bunbury.
In August the WA Nationals withdrew their support for the Voice, joining their national counterparts..
In April, former Indigenous Australians minister and longtime Liberal Party member Ken Wyatt sensationally quit the party in protest of its No stance.
8. What the PM says
The first thing Mr Albanese did after winning the Federal election in May 2022 was to commit to the Uluru Statement from the Heart “in full”.
In an emotional press conference earlier this year where he confirmed the final wording of the question, Mr Albanese pleaded with Australians: “This is a modest request. I say to Australia, don’t miss it.
“This moment has been a very long time in the making. It’s a simple matter from the heart.
“Recognising Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians in our Constitution is the best chance this country has to address the injustices of the past and move Australia forward for everyone. The best way to do this is to give people a Voice.”
And in some of his strongest language yet, last week he spoke of the “catastrophic” outcomes of a No vote, saying that when government listened to Indigenous people during the pandemic, countless lives were saved.
He’s also outlined how the Voice would benefit taxpayers, by preventing waste and improving trust in government.
“If you listen to people, you get better outcomes,” he said.
9. What the Opposition says
The Nationals came out in opposition to the Voice late last year under the guidance of Senator Price.
Mr Dutton confirmed earlier this year the Liberal Party would oppose the Voice. Julian Leeser, then-shadow attorney-general and Indigenous affairs spokesperson, quit the shadow front bench in order to campaign for a Yes vote.
Senator Price, a Warlpiri-Celtic woman, has become one of the leading proponents of the No case and says the referendum is “divisive” because it “seeks to create different levels of citizenship” and would split the country by race.
“I can’t stand for that,” she said in WA this week.
Mr Dutton has repeatedly labelled the Voice “risky” and says Mr Albanese is misleading Australians by calling the Voice a “modest” proposal.
He’s also accused the Government of failing to give Australians any detail on what they’re being asked to vote for.
“This is the biggest change to our Constitution proposed since Federation and nobody understands what it is that he’s talking about,” he said.
10. What the polls say
Support for the Voice has been falling for months, with the latest Newspoll suggesting just 36 per cent of people intend to vote Yes, compared to 56 per cent voting No. In February, support was at 56 per cent and opposition 37 per cent.
A poll for The West Australian last month revealed only 39 per cent of WA voters would vote Yes, while The Sunday Times reported fewer than one in three voters in the teal-held seat of Curtin supported the referendum.
Across all published polls, the average for Yes has fallen below 45 per cent. One polling analyst last month forecast that if support continued to decline, the Yes vote was on track for a worse result than in the referendum on a republic.
Pollster Kos Samaras said the Yes vote needed to reach 52.5 per cent in order to succeed. He said while that task seemed extremely difficult, it was “not impossible” given the number of undecided and unengaged voters.
11. Why vote Yes
The leading groups arguing for the Voice are the Uluru Dialogues, Yes23, the Federal Government, all Australian State and Territory governments and the Liberals for Yes.
Supporters say Australians are being asked to vote for two things: respect and recognition.
A Voice would ensure Indigenous people have a say in matters that affect them, they say, noting the current state of Indigenous affairs and policy making is lacklustre and the status quo cannot continue.
According to reputable polls, 80 per cent of Indigenous people back the Voice to Parliament.
Mr Albanese says that if the Government listens to Indigenous people as it creates policies about them taxpayer dollars will be better spent.
The Yes campaign also says it’s no longer acceptable for Australia to be one of the only colonised countries in the world that does not recognise Indigenous people in its founding document.
The Voice would have no veto powers and would ultimately be subservient to the Parliament, which would have ultimate say over what becomes law.
12. Why vote No
The leading No campaign group, backed by conservative lobbyist Advance under the banner Australians for Unity, is led by Senator Price and Warren Mundine. Other prominent No campaigners are Mr Dutton and Nationals leader David Littleproud, and the majority of the Opposition.
The main No campaign group has three major arguments against the Voice — division, legal challenges and lack of detail. They say the Voice will “divide” the country along the lines of race.
They say the Voice is legally risky and believe it opens up the door for High Court legal challenges — an argument debunked by leading legal experts.
The most divisive argument is over detail, with many No voters citing that because they don’t know what the Voice would look like, they don’t feel like they can vote for it. There have also been claims by No proponents nothing is beyond the Voice’s scope.
There is another No case, referred to as the “progressive” No, spearheaded by Lidia Thorpe, a former Victorian Greens senator and now independent
In a point of difference to the mainstream No campaign, it says the Voice doesn’t go far enough, and that a treaty should be the first priority. It says the Voice will have no power, and some in the group don’t want Indigenous Australians to be made part of the Constitution, which some say is an invalid colonial document.
13. Key figures for
The Yes campaign has been bolstered by a raft of celebrity endorsements. Sporting icons Cathy Freeman, Eddie Betts, Johnathan Thurston, Ash Barty and Evonne Goolagong Cawley have all given their voices to the campaign.
This week, fresh off the back of the Penrith Panthers’ premiership win, Nathan Cleary threw his support behind the Voice. A few days later, AFL legend Adam Goodes appeared in a Yes23 ad.
Some of Australia’s biggest names in music have given their voices — sometimes literally — to the campaign: John Farnham, Peter Garrett, Paul Kelly and rapper Briggs.
Ray Martin did the cause no favours when he told a Yes rally in Sydney those who vote No were “d…heads and dinosaurs”.
Oscar-winning actor Cate Blanchett supports the Voice, as do a host of Australian actors and comedians.
International celebrities including Shaquille “Shaq” O’Neal, MC Hammer and Taika Waititi have also thrown their support behind the Voice.
14. Key figures against
The No campaign has been led by Senator Price and Mr Mundine, with support from other politicians including Pauline Hanson, Victorian Senator Ralph Babet and Bob Katter.
Former prime ministers Howard and Abbott have also lent their voices to the No campaign, with Mr Howard calling on No campaigners to “maintain the rage” in the last weeks before the referendum.
Mining magnate Clive Palmer has spent $2 million to campaign against the Voice and champion boxer Anthony Mundine has also backed the No camp.