Sean Keeler: Are the Nuggets and Avalanche good … or just good enough to break your heart? When things go south in April, I always try to remind myself that the ’22 Stanley Cup champs only won four of their last 10 regular-season games and that the ’23 NBA champs went 5-5 in the 10 games immediately preceding the greatest postseason run in Nuggets history. Unfortunately, both the Nuggs and Avs this month are in a “chasing” position with a week or two to go until the postseason cranks up. And because of that, they’ve battled health problems — Jamal Murray on the hoops front, Mikko Rantanen on the ice — and exposed more of their weaknesses to their rivals than I’m sure either Nuggets coach Michael Malone or Avs coach Jared Bednar would prefer. For the latter, it’s the defense. For the former, it’s the second unit. I think I know which one would have me losing more sleep in the weeks to come. But what debility has you more concerned as the most important games on the calendar loom?
Troy Renck: Watching the Avs and Nuggets the last week has been akin to Taco Bell hitting the belly at 3 a.m. It’s uncomfortable and unsettling. My biggest concern is the Avs’ defense, and by proxy, goalie Alexandar Georgiev. February hiccups became March burps and now April represents Pepto-Bismol required indigestion for Georgiev. In his last six games he has allowed six goals twice and four goals on two occasions. It speaks to soft goals and alarming mistakes in front of him. After Sunday’s drubbing by the Stars, coach Jared Bednar summed it up eloquently when he admitted, “we did some dumb stuff.”
Keeler: The Avs are handing folks dangerous scoring chances right now the way Girl Scouts pass out cookies — by the box. It ain’t good, brother, but I’ve seen enough bonkers, Xbox-style shootouts at Ball Arena in recent years not to push that particular panic button first. I’m a little more concerned about the Nuggets’ bench in the postseason, actually. And here’s why: During the ’23 postseason, Malone’s bench, anchored by Bruce Brown, posted the ninth-most efficient scoring offense among playoff teams, the third-most efficient defense and the sixth-best “net rating” advantage, according to NBA.com. During this campaign, the Nuggs’ bench as of early Monday ranked No. 8 in offensive efficiency, No. 22 in defensive efficiency and No. 22 in “net rating” advantage. Heck of a drop.
Renck: The playoffs slim a rotation faster than Ozempic. The Nuggets will lean on three reserves — Peyton Watson, Christian Braun and Reggie Jackson. When Jamal Murray was out with knee and ankle injuries, I watched the second unit struggle to score, let alone be efficient. Watson will be fine as a shot blocker and Energizer Bunny. For the bench to work, Jackson and Braun have to bury open looks. Braun showed up in the postseason a year ago and is gaining traction. But Jackson’s months-long shooting slump is beyond worrisome. There are light switch guys on this team. Are we sure Jackson will suddenly get hot when the games matter the most?
Keeler: Love Reggie Jackson. He might be the closest thing this Nuggets team is going to have, come the postseason, to a second-unit bell cow. The closest to a Brucey B, a wily vet who can also finish big games for you on the floor. But he’s not quite as cutthroat at the most cutthroat time of the year, at least based on recent playoff performances. Since the spring of 2021, Jackson’s logged 25 postseason appearances, posting a positive “net” rating, per NBA.com’s tracking data, in 16 of those games, and a negative or neutral one in the other nine. Brown, comparatively, has put up 23 positive “net” games over that same span, against 13 negative ones. It’s a slightly better ratio — and one of several stats that underscore how important No. 11 was in getting Denver its first Larry O’Brien Trophy. In the 20 postseason second quarters the Nuggs played last spring, they got outscored in, or “lost,” only seven of them.
Renck: Bruce Brown cashed in as a free agent, but I am sure if you asked him he would tell how much he misses playing with Nikola Jokic. The Joker made him smile and millions of dollars. Brown is missed. But he is not missing as much as the Avs’ defense recently. Bednar has shown a knack for pushing the right buttons, for leaning on his team at the right time. But what is unfolding is alarming. A few weeks ago, the Avs appeared ready for a deep Stanley Cup run. Now, they are likely to face the Winnipeg Jets in the first round and need to finish strong to avoid the series opening in Manitoba. If Winnipeg wins Monday, the Avs will need to beat the Jets at Ball Arena on Saturday. Will the real Avs defense show up? It needs to because Georgiev doesn’t look like he’s going to stand on his head anytime soon.
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