What’s a successful 2024 season for Sean Payton’s team?

Denver Post Broncos writer Parker Gabriel posts his Broncos Mailbag weekly during the season and periodically during the offseason. Click here to submit a question.

Hey Parker, what would you say would be the baseline for a good season for the Broncos this year? A winning record? A playoff berth? A division title? The betting sites have us at an over-under of 5.5 wins. I think we’re better than that. What do you think?

— James A., Denver

Hey James, thanks for writing in and getting us going this week. Any of those marks would represent a good year for the Broncos. Every team is at a slightly different point of the life cycle, but given the parity in the NFL, there’s just not much room for calling a non-playoff season a success. However, in the grand scheme of the franchise, priority No. 1 is figuring out if Bo Nix is a true franchise cornerstone. Sometimes the answer to that question isn’t clear after a season, but you want to be able to project with more confidence than now.

How ready Nix is and how quickly he develops also could have a big impact on the win total. I’ve said before that I think over 5.5 is in the cards, but maybe not by much. That changes if Nix comes out of the gate playing with the kind of efficiency we’ve seen in the preseason.

Of course, it’s not all on him. The Broncos have some nice pieces and if the 2023 draft class takes a big step and some rookies hit, yeah, you could be talking about a surprise team. It’s hard to sit here before the season begins, though, and say that their depth of talent is going to carry them to a 10-win season. Last year, it felt like a pretty stable group. This one has more volatility, which can be a good thing or a bad thing.

Most years, there’s no such thing as a successful season without making the postseason. That holds mostly true this year but with the quarterback-identification caveat.

Hello Parker! I was wondering, do you think there might be something we don’t know about the release of Caden Sterns? I mean, we appeared a bit thin depth-wise at the position, highlighted by Brandon Jones’ injury during camp, and I was surprised that they thought they could afford to wave him. Do you think it was really the case of another player breaking out during camp behind the trio of Jones, PJ Locke and JL Skinner (Devon Key?), or do you think there might have been an issue with him besides a slower recovery than expected?

— Yoann, Beine-Nauroy (France)

Hey Yoann, thanks for the note. I don’t think it was anything major besides the injury history. It’s not easy for guys to come back from a long layoff and have competition that maybe didn’t exist before. It’d be easy to think that with Justin Simmons and Kareem Jackson gone that you’d be walking back into a starting role or close to it, but Sterns had competition from all the guys you mention.

Payton and defensive coordinator Vance Joseph, too, have spoken highly about the group even though we’ve only seen some preseason play from several of them. Devon Key is among the more interesting stories on the roster. He spent all of last year on the practice squad and now he’s getting his chance with the amount of time Brandon Jones has missed in camp with the hamstring injury. Key isn’t a big guy, but he has good instincts, doesn’t take many false steps and he isn’t afraid to come up and play in the run game. JL Skinner has impressive size and range and has a chance to be a contributor, too, and some guys like Keidron Smith and Tanner McCalister have had moments during camp, but Key’s the one who maybe gave the staff real confidence in their depth at the position.

Preseason games may be misleading information for assessing the talent and capability of the players. When first-team players are on the field against a backup group or a third-string unit, the stellar performance must be viewed with some realization of the mismatch. QBs who only get to play with players unlikely to make the roster have difficulty looking good when compared to projected starters who have the first-string unit with them on the field.

— Jon, Edwards

Definitely true, Jon. There is no true apples-to-apples comparison in preseason games. It would have been interesting to see what Zach Wilson would have looked like, for example, had he got more time with the No. 1s in training camp or some run in preseason games. At the same time, you can understand that there’s a finite amount of time and reps to go around.

This is why coaches always say that you can’t control who you’re playing against. You just play and try to do your best. Of course, it’s fair to take note of who’s on the field and who’s not. Take Bo Nix on Sunday night against Green Bay. You could discount his performance because Green Bay’s starters were wearing ball caps and sweats on the sideline. You could be heartened by the fact that he had seemingly good timing and rhythm with Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick. Both are fair. How much does one or the other count? Really the answer is unknown until we’re well into the regular season.

This is across the roster and across the league. The Broncos’ reserve offensive line struggles Sunday, I thought, made it tough to get a clean read on the play of Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson, but also for the running backs. Rookie OLB Jonah Elliss has generated a ton of pressure in the preseason, but Rashawn Slater of the Chargers is going to be a different challenge in the regular season.

It seems like a foregone conclusion that Bo Nix will be starting for us against Seattle. How about that fight at QB2? Jarrett Stidham holds on or does Zach Wilson win it? Or does Denver keep three QBs?

— Michael R., Colorado Springs

Terrific question, Michael. And it’s the question of the week since, as you say, it’s pretty clear where the starting job is headed. Over the past two weeks, it’s felt more and more like Wilson is a keeper. It’s been said before but it’s still remarkable: The guy is only six months older than Nix. He and Stidham are each free agents after this season and the money isn’t dramatically different enough to make the call based only on dollars.

I’m obviously not a GM, but you can feel Wilson getting more comfortable as camp progresses and people who know a lot more than I do see growth potential. The question in that case is whether to keep all three. There’s an argument for it, to be sure. Payton likes the room as it’s currently constructed. There’s a line from the summer that I keep coming back to on this subject and it’s Payton describing quarterback coach Davis Webb’s influence. One of several advantages the head coach sees from Webb having played in the NFL so recently is that he is, “almost like that wily veteran quarterback that’s in the room.”

It’s a big call and an important one and it will be fascinating to watch Payton’s thought process play out over the next week.

Hey Parker, is Jonah Elliss the steal of the draft? Yeah, he’s a little small but what a pass rusher! How long before he climbs the depth charts? Outside of Bo Nix, I think he can make the biggest impact for us as a rookie.

— Mark, Arvada

Yeah, Mark, he certainly could be. Payton and general manager George Paton love this draft class already. Elliss had production in college and he’s shown promising play so far this summer. But it will get harder for him just like it gets harder for all rookies — all players, really — once the regular season arrives.

Elliss has a pass-rush plan and he’s got ways to mix it up and counter. What I’ve been maybe most impressed with is he plays with power despite not having a huge, Bradley Chubb-type frame. He generates push, has strong hands and has an idea about how to use them. He’s going to have to keep diversifying, but he’s an early candidate to make an impact, for sure.

Paton loves to say that you can never have enough guys that rush the passer and that’s true. With Elliss, there are two things to watch: One is if he can be a key part of the rotation this year and then the other is whether he ends up influencing the plan of attack after 2024 with Baron Browning and Jonathon Cooper, each of whom are set to be free agents. Ideally, teams draft a year ahead of their needs. This might be a perfect example of that.

Where does Marvin Mims Jr. fit in the offense? With Tim Patrick and Greg Dulcich back, and us adding Josh Reynolds in the offseason, I don’t see him getting much time on the field outside of the kick and punt returns.

— Mike, Denver

Terrific question, Mike. It would still seem like they’re going to find ways to work Mims into the offense. He’s got speed and explosiveness that this offense needs more of. But the massive jump in playing time and production that was widely assumed this spring after Denver traded Jerry Jeudy might not materialize so cleanly. Mims hasn’t had a bad camp, but he hasn’t consistently made a ton of plays, either. Doesn’t mean he can’t or won’t have a productive season.

One thing to watch, though, is how the Broncos play on the perimeter. Reynolds isn’t thick, but he’s tall, long, has a big catch radius and he’s a force in the run game. Patrick has played quite a bit out of the slot and that looked like the plan for him each of the past two seasons before his injuries, too. Then, will the Broncos be able to keep rookie Devaughn Vele off the field? He’s a different build and skill set than Mims but he’s made plays virtually every day of camp.

It’s not near time to write Mims off. What his role in the offense is early in the season, though, at this point feels like an open question.

I’m excited for the new uniforms this season and want to purchase a rookie jersey that might have some staying power. Hopefully four or five years. I don’t want Bo Nix because everyone will have that. I’m thinking either Troy Franklin or Audric Estime. Thoughts? Will debut it in the stands in Week 3 at Tampa Bay.

— James, Boynton Beach, Fla.