Lucknow: Claiming to represent ‘Pichhde, Dalit, and Musalman’ sections, the Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM, the Apna Dal (Kamerawadi), the Pragatisheel Manav Samaj Party (PMSP) and the Rashtriya Uday Party (RUP) have floated the PDM Nyay Morcha in Uttar Pradesh where the fight is largely between the BJP-led NDA and the INDIA bloc.
Elaborating on the motive of forming the alliance, Pallavi Patel of Apna Dal (Kamerawadi) remarked Sunday that their motive was to remove the confusion in ‘A’ in the PDA (Pichhde, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) slogan given by Samajwadi Party’s Akhilesh Yadav.
Given that the voter base of this so-called Third Front is nearly similar to that of the Samajwadi-Congress INDIA bloc, the immediate inference is that it could harm the prospects of the opposition candidates in some seats of Uttar Pradesh which the front decides to contest. The front is yet to declare the number of seats that it will contest.
While the Congress is contesting 17 seats, the Samajwadi Party and other like-minded parties will field their candidates in the remaining 63 in the northern state.
As for the PDM Nyay Morcha, the Apna Dal (K), the PMSP and the RUP are preparing to contest some of the 64 seats which will vote in the third to seventh phase of the Lok Sabha polls.
आज P.D.M.( पिछड़ा , दलित , मुसलमान ) गठबंधन की घोषणा करते हुए साथ में AIMIM के राष्ट्रीय अध्यक्ष श्री असदुद्दीन ओवैसी जी, प्रगतिशील मानव समाज पार्टी के राष्ट्रीय अध्यक्ष श्री प्रेम चंद्र बिंद जी, राष्ट्र उदय पार्टी के राष्ट्रीय अध्यक्ष श्री बाबू राम पाल जी एवं अपना दल की… pic.twitter.com/9FqbmrakMw
— Dr. Pallavi Patel (@pallavi_apnadal) March 31, 2024
But, the newly-minted alliance is already facing challenges as other players like Rashtriya Shoshit Samaj Party (RSSP) leader Swami Prasad Maurya and Azad Samaj Party (ASP) chief Chandrashekhar Azad are seemingly cold to the overtures of Owaisi to join the front.
“Owaisi has always been tagged as the B team of the BJP. Azad is fighting from Nagina where the SP candidate is accusing him of being hand in glove with the RSS-BJP. If Azad joins hands with Owaisi, he will only bolster that accusation. He will maintain a distance from the alliance,” a leader close to Azad told ThePrint.
Similarly, an aide of Maurya told ThePrint that he was not enthused to join the alliance as the OBC leader is in touch with the Congress likely to extend support to him to contest from Kushinagar.
“Maurya ji has decided to contest from Kushinagar on his own party symbol. Some days back, Congress UP in charge Avinash Pande met our leader and the parties have been friendly despite Maurya ji’s resignation from the SP. Akhilesh, too, is not in a mood to prolong any dispute. INDIA bloc may support Maurya in Kushinagar,” the aide added.
Owaisi entry a mere symbolism?
A senior leader of All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) told ThePrint that the AIMIM may not field any candidates in any of the seats and instead campaign for the Morcha candidates.
“The opposition has always accused the AIMIM of helping the BJP and this time too, INDIA constituents are going to repeat this charge. The AIMIM does not want to attract that charge this time and will focus on campaigning for the other candidates,” the leader said.
Another AIMIM leader said that chances of fielding a candidate were very negligible.
Earlier, there were reports that the AIMIM was looking to make its Lok Sabha poll debut in Uttar Pradesh.
AIMIM spokesperson Mohammed Farhan has claimed that Owaisi has asked all AIMIM workers to campaign for the Morcha candidates but will not field any candidates under pressure from Rahul Gandhi and Congress because he wants to save his Hyderabad seat.
This was being done with an aim to disintegrate the Patel and Bind voters and harm the BJP rather than the INDIA bloc and wont field AIMIM candidates to avoid disintegration of Muslim vote, he said.
PMSP president Prem Chand Bind told ThePrint that since the nomination process for the first and second phases is already over, they are focusing on the remaining phases.
“Meetings have started taking place. We will field candidates for the remaining phases. For the seats going to polls in the fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh phases, we will field our candidates because the Apna Dal (K), the PMSP and the RUP have more support in central UP and Purvanchal,” he said, adding that he would contest from Bhadohi.
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How these parties are placed
So far, the AIMIM has tested waters in two assembly and in as many municipal elections in Uttar Pradesh.
In the 2023 urban body polls, the AIMIM’s mayoral candidate finished runner-up behind the BJP nominee in Meerut. Five AIMIM candidates were elected as Nagar Palika Parishad or Nagar Panchayat chairpersons, and 75 councillors won in municipal corporations.
The Apna Dal (K) has no MP, but Pallavi Patel had trounced deputy CM Keshav Maurya at Sirathu in 2022 when she fought on the SP symbol. Her mother, Krishna Patel, however, lost in Pratapgarh.
Both the RUP and the PMSP have some support in certain pockets of the Purvanchal region. Known to field mafia dons Brijesh Singh, Rakesh Dhar Tripathi and Vijay Mishra in eastern UP seats in assembly polls, the PMSP is yet to open its account.
The RUP is led by Babu Ram Pal who commands some support from the Pal and Gaderiya communities. It was part of the Bhagidari Morcha — an umbrella alliance in Purvanchal led by Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) which was formed by O.P. Rajbhar after parting ways with the BJP in 2019.
Rajbhar returned to the NDA in July last year, and his son Arvind is the SBSP candidate from Ghosi.
Third Front tol play spoiler in few seats
While the PDM Nyay Morcha claims it will take on both the NDA and the INDIA candidates, most political analysts agree that since its constituents have limited presence in some assembly segments, they may only play spoiler to the INDIA candidates in a few seats.
Shashikant Pandey, head of the department of political science, Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar University, told ThePrint that while AIMIM derives support from a section of Muslims, the Apna Dal (K) has limited support in constituencies like Phulpur, Kaushambi and Mirzapur.
Both parties lack a wide support base on ground, he said.
“These parties indulge in identity politics. AIMIM has limited support in a section of Muslims. The Apna Dal (K) enjoys support from mainly the Kurmis. However, in Lok Sabha elections, a voter does not like to waste votes. Muslims generally vote for a candidate who is in a position to defeat the BJP candidate. While a few die-hard supporters may vote for Owaisi, it is unlikely that Muslims will vote for the AIMIM.”
He said that the Apna Dal (K) will try to corner the Kurmi vote in its seats but the party would find it difficult to make a major impact in a seat like Mirzapur where Apna Dal (S) chief Anupriya may contest from.
“Both parties try to woo the same community and Anupriya Patel’s party has emerged as the main party of the Kurmis since it has been in alliance with the ruling BJP for the past several years and is in a position to oblige the voters,” he explained. “Even the BJP has made inroads in the Kurmi vote and has leaders from the community. Pallavi Patel won Sirathu, but it doesn’t mean that the party has a huge organisational base elsewhere. They may make some difference on one or two seats, but are likely to draw a blank.”
The Morcha is likely to field those candidates who are disgruntled either with the BJP or the INDIA bloc, he said.
“It is possible that they may not be able to get good candidates to field. In such situations, it is mostly the disgruntled leaders from the major parties like BJP or SP who may get tickets,” Pandey said.
T.P. Singh, a professor of political science at Banaras Hindu University, told ThePrint that in the Lok Sabha elections, voters don’t want to waste their votes.
“Muslims have largely been voting against the NDA, and it is unlikely that AIMIM will attract many votes. Further, in Ghazipur, the AIMIM will be forced to extend a covert or overt support to Afzal Ansari. The Mukhtar Ansari factor will remain limited to Ghazipur. The candidates put up by the front may only end up becoming spoilers for INDIA candidates,” he said.
Mirza Asmer Beg, a professor of political science at Aligarh Muslim University, too, was of the same opinion.
“It is possible that such candidates play spoilers for some of the INDIA candidates. If Owaisi mobilises some support for the third front candidates, they may take away a few thousands votes of the INDIA candidates but they will largely only play spoilers and won’t win anything,” he said.
(Edited by Tony Rai)
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