Here are my favorite sides for Thursday’s first round of the NCAA Tournament, which includes two potential upset bids in the Midwest and East Regions.
Midwest Region: (14) Akron vs. (3) Creighton
Akron coach John Groce is 7-1 against the spread in eight NCAA Tournament games. How did he accomplish such a feat?
He muddies the game against every higher-seeded favorite, turning traditional basketball battles into rock fights and slogs. For example, in the 2022 tournament, Groce’s 12th-seeded Zips held fourth-seeded UCLA to 57 points in a four-point loss.
The Zips can do precisely that against Creighton.
Akron’s defense will switch everything on the perimeter while deploying no-middle actions on the interior, which is an intelligent strategy against Creighton’s inside-out motion offense.
While Creighton led the Big East in Rim-and-3 points per possession (PPP), Akron led the MAC in Rim-and-3 PPP allowed.
On the surface, this is a brutal offensive matchup for the post-heavy Zips, as center Ryan Kalkbrenner has the ability to stuff Akron’s leading scorer, Enrique Freeman, on the low block.
However, the Bluejays’ drop-coverage defensive scheme forces opponents into on-ball, middle-of-the-floor creation.
While the Zips don’t usually flow that way, their midrange and high-paint shooting metrics are elite (41 percent from mid-range, 86th percentile; 47 percent in the high-paint, 93rd percentile).
Akron will allow 3s, and I’ll have to tip my cap and move on if the Bluejays hit them.
However, the Zips can muck the game up, trap Kalkbrenner in the post, and hit midrange shots.
This is a classic recipe for an upset bid.
Recommendation: Akron +12.5 or better
East Region: (14) Morehead State vs. (3) Illinois
The Eagles have everything you need in a potential Cinderella squad.
They have an elite guard in Drew Thelwell, with a 30 percent assist rate.
They have mismatch makers on the wing with Riley Minix and Jordan Lathon, a duo that combined for 36 points per game this season. They also have size with 7-footer Dieonte Miles anchoring the paint.
They can shoot (35 percent from 3), play defense (top-10 national ranking in expected FG percentage allowed), and slow the game to a halt with elite transition denial (top-30 in transition points per game allowed).
The final point will be key against Illinois.
The Illini are elite on the break, ranking above the 80th percentile of D-I teams in transition frequency (18 percent) and above the 90th percentile in efficiency (1.15 PPP).
But Morehead State will viciously deny that avenue, forcing Illinois into an uncomfortable half-court slog.
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The Illini should score relentlessly in the half-court, as Terrence Shannon Jr. and Marcus Domask can obliterate the Eagles’ deep drop-coverage defense.
However, Illinois also refuses to play defense, falling to 92nd nationally in efficiency on that end of the court.
The Illini don’t force a lot of turnovers, negating Morehead’s primary weakness: poor ball handling.
They’re also poor at defending secondary on- and off-ball screening actions, which the Eagles use relentlessly to generate shots and driving lanes for Minix, Lathon and Miles.
At minimum, the Illini will allow the Eagles to hang around in a lower-possession, half-court script.
And considering the high-variance nature of those games, the Eagles are live in the Round of 64.
It’s worth mentioning that these Illini boast a similar profile to the 2022 Iowa Hawkeyes, a dominant offensive team that soared to a Big Ten Tournament championship despite poor defense.
Those No. 5-seeded Hawkeyes lost to 12th-seeded Richmond in the Round of 64.
Recommendation: Morehead State +11.5.