Will Sean Payton make staff changes this offseason?

Denver Post Broncos writer Parker Gabriel posts his Broncos Mailbag weekly during the season and periodically during the offseason. Click here to submit a question.

Hi, Parker! With all the attention on the poor working relationship between Sean Payton and Russell Wilson, why is it a foregone conclusion that it’s Wilson that the Broncos will be letting go? Why not consider parting ways with Payton, instead? One could argue that Wilson had a decent year (3,070 yards, 26 TDs, only 8 interceptions) and that Payton is the one responsible for the Broncos’ losing record this year.

— Michael Glassman, Centennial

Hey Michael, thanks for writing in and getting us going this week. We’ve tackled versions of this question in previous mailbags, but the shortest version of the answer is this: Payton makes the decisions and Wilson doesn’t.

Foregone conclusion is a pretty good way to put it. Until they actually have the final conversations and the manner of Wilson’s exit is finalized, you never say never. But the expectation is Wilson will be playing elsewhere next year and Denver will be fully back into the quarterback market.

In terms of the NFL assistant coaches carousel, what changes do you anticipate to Sean Payton’s staff?

— Ed Helinski, Auburn, N.Y.

Hey Ed, great question. It’s one of those where you don’t know what to anticipate, but typically you just expect some amount of change. That’s not necessarily Payton letting assistants go, either. The Broncos may well have some staff members who get looks for promotions as new head coaches put together staff. It wouldn’t be difficult to imagine some of Denver’s assistants at least getting interviews for coordinator jobs. Secondary coach Christian Parker, defensive line coach Marcus Dixon and quarterbacks coach Davis Webb are all among the candidates there.

As far as any other changes go, nothing solid on that front so far. The Broncos have craved continuity for years and maybe Payton will try to keep as much of his staff together as possible. He spoke very highly of it through training camp as the group came together. At the same time, he was not pleased with his offense in particular as the year went along and he made an interesting comment during his postseason news conference about evaluations when he said, “I think that I’m comfortable and far enough along doing this that I can easily be swayed or moved. Even coaches. It’s one thing to be somewhere where everyone tells you what you want to hear, but the value of a coach that tells me sometimes what I need to hear, I appreciate.”

Payton didn’t say whether he thinks he has enough of that now. It could be that he does. Or perhaps he’ll go looking for more. Just as one example, New Orleans on Tuesday fired offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael, who served as Payton’s quarterbacks coach from 2006-08 and then OC from 2009 on. This time of year always brings options for both teams and coaches.

Please get rid of Vance Joseph. I have a feeling his role was diminished during their winning spell and then was given back the reins during their end-of-year losing spell. I’m just an older businessman who watches the performance of employees.

— Gary Coleman, Estes Park

If we’re evaluating the performance of employees, Gary, how would we evaluate one who, in your hypothetical, makes a change, sees immediate improvement and then undoes that change only to watch the whole thing collapse? That would be malpractice, right?

That, of course, is not what happened as it pertains to the Broncos defense. The group got off to a horrible start for several reasons: They were learning a new system, lost one of their key communicators in Justin Simmons, and were playing the wrong guy at multiple spots. The last one, in particular, is on the staff. They’re not beating Miami in any event, but might they have got the first two with Fabian Moreau and Ja’Quan McMillian playing instead of Damarri Mathis and Essang Bassey?

The defense then obviously got hot on the strength of a massive turnover bender and played OK but not well enough down the stretch. There’s plenty of room for criticism and the end-of-season numbers aren’t pretty. But we’re not blaming Joseph for all of the bad and giving him no credit for the good in between.

I find it comical people criticize Payton since he inherited one of the worst teams in the NFL and kept them in the playoff hunt to the end. My question is, when do you think the Broncos will have the talent to truly be a Super Bowl contender?

— Tim Eitel, Orlando, Fla.

Hey Tim, there’s certainly room for criticism when the Broncos — led by Payton — had the table set in front of it and messed up the meal. But you’re right that it’s also fair to look at a three-win improvement and take positives away from 2023. Before the season, we talked about the difference between a successful season (playoffs) and perhaps a productive one (coming up short but making strides). So it’d be fair to call this year a productive one, just not a success.

As to your question, it’s going to be difficult but not impossible the next two years with Wilson’s dead money likely on the books. If you’re talking about a deep, healthy, young, financially viable roster with a multi-year window to be in the upper echelon, it just feels like it’s going to be a while unless Denver bats about .900 in the draft the next two springs. But fear not: You don’t necessarily have to have that in order to win the whole thing. Look at what Tampa Bay’s doing now. They’re playing in the divisional round with a ton of dead cap and a $4 million quarterback who’s playing his way into a much bigger payday. If you get one of those types of years while you’re in the process of shedding Wilson’s contract, the interim period feels much better.

Do the Waltons regret rushing to give Russell Wilson that big contract extension? Why was it rushed?

— Jason, Redlands, Calif.

Hey Jason, good question. A quick recap of the timing on this: The Broncos traded for Wilson after the sale process had started but well before the Walton-Penner Family Ownership Group closed on the club. Then the extension came just weeks after the sale was finalized.

Venerable Post columnist Mark Kiszla from the start advocated for the trade and warned against the extension. Obviously, that stood up to the test of time quite nicely. Here’s the other side to the argument: Wilson had no-trade protection in Seattle, so the timeline for an extension (aka, before the 2022 season) was part of the initial conversations to get the trade done. It wasn’t like, “Oh, we got this player, now what? Should we extend him now or wait a year?” It was part of the trade process. And it couldn’t really get done when the trade happened in March because of the ongoing sale. Now, did they actually have to commit to doing an extension based on who they were bidding against? That seems like a fair question.

The other point here is, what does it say about your conviction if you ship a boatload of premium draft picks and three players out for this quarterback, then turn around and tell him, “Yeah, we just mortgaged a huge amount of future capital for your, but we want you to prove it for a year.” You’re either all in on a trade like that or you shouldn’t make it in the first place. The Broncos were all in. Turns out, they were wrong.

Hey Parker, since the Broncos — as usual — won’t be in the playoffs, what do you think the chances are that my Buffalo Bills can win it all? We have an elite and exciting QB who can both run and pass effectively (usually) and our defense is good enough to finally win a Super Bowl. I know the gamblers are picking the Ravens or the Niners but what about the Bills?

— RJ, Tonawanda, N.Y.

Hey RJ, hope your back withstood all the shoveling. I certainly wouldn’t be wild about seeing the Bills at this point in the postseason. They haven’t lost since dropping to 6-6, Allen’s playing well (How about that touchdown run?) and the weapons around him give Buffalo a lot of options. They’ve certainly got a chance. Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes again this weekend is must-see stuff. I like Buffalo’s chances at home.

Baltimore’s really, really good. But if you find yourself playing on championship weekend, you’ve got a shot.

One Broncos-related note: Denver played six games against the eight divisional-round teams this year, which is pretty wild. They went 3-3, with wins against Green Bay and Buffalo, losses against Detroit and Houston and a split with the Chiefs.