As Israel menaces Gaza’s last holdout of Rafah, apathy and resignation abound among negotiators

“The situation is more complicated because of the internal political set-up on both sides,” Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said on Monday during a panel discussion on the Gaza conflict at a special meeting of the World Economic Forum in Riyadh, the Saudi capital.
Meanwhile, Qatar – one of the other major mediators in the conflict – said late last month through its foreign ministry spokesman that it was “appalled” at Israeli accusations Doha was using aid money to fund Hamas, the militant group whose October 7 attack on southern Israel sparked the wider war.
Doha has hosted Hamas’ political leadership for years at the behest of the United States, Israel’s main ally, to enable dialogue – in a similar vein to the hospitality it accorded the Afghan Taliban between 2013 and 2022, for similar reasons. Qatar also hosts the largest American military base in the Middle East.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken attends a meeting with representatives from Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and the Palestinian Authority in Riyadh on Monday. Photo: AFP
At a summit of foreign ministers called in Riyadh on Sunday last week, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Turkey joined Qatar and Egypt in calling for “effective sanctions” against Israel for “the war crimes it is committing in Gaza and the occupied West Bank”, according to a Saudi foreign ministry press release.

But observers say this, and their call for an international arms embargo against Israel, are clearly symbolic gestures, given the billions of dollars in arms and ammunition that have already been sent to the country by the US, Germany and other Western nations since the war began.

On April 24, US President Joe Biden signed into law a package that will send an additional US$15 billion in military aid to Israel, including US$5 billion for its missile-defence systems, US$1 billion for munitions and US$2.4 billion for American military operations in the region.

“The Islamic contact group has a mostly symbolic character and them calling for sanctions is actually a call on the United States and other Western states to do something” about Israel’s planned assault on Rafah, said Andreas Krieg, a Middle East-focused political risk analyst and associate professor of security studies at King’s College London, using an informal term to refer to Sunday’s ministerial meeting.

There’s been a lot of apathy and disengagement really … It’s an easy way of hiding behind Western complicity in this war

Andreas Krieg, political risk analyst

“There’s been a lot of apathy and disengagement really [from Islamic and Arab officials] in actually taking over agency [in regards to the Gaza conflict] instead of just always saying it’s the West that needs to do more to hold Israel to account,” he said.

“It’s an easy way of hiding behind Western complicity in this war in Gaza, and denying their own agency and responsibility.”

That said, if the US continues to support Israel “more or less unequivocally”, then “it’s obviously true that nothing is going to move in Palestine or in Gaza”, Krieg said.

At the same time, there’s more that Arab and Muslim states “can do to not just condemn Israel but also put pressure through all the means available to them on their Western partners”, such as constraining exports of oil, gas and associated products, he said.

Orthodox Jews gather on Tuesday around the remains of one of the ballistic missiles fired by Iran and intercepted by Israel earlier in April. Nearly all of the more than 300 drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles were intercepted, according to the Israeli army. Photo: AFP
In the wake of last month’s tit-for-tat exchange of air strikes between Israel and Iran, Biden has doubled down on Washington’s “ironclad” commitment to Israel’s defence, while toning down his opposition to the proposed Rafah assault that he had previously said would cross a “red line”.

After US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Netanyahu on Wednesday, the State Department put out a statement saying he had “reiterated the United States’ clear position on Rafah”, without elaborating.

Speaking to reporters in Jerusalem after the talks, Blinken bemoaned Israel’s lack of “an effective plan to make sure that civilians are not harmed”, stressing that there were “better ways of dealing with the real ongoing challenge of Hamas that does not require a major military operation”.

Earlier, at the World Economic Forum in Riyadh on Monday, Blinken told Arab leaders “the only thing standing between the people of Gaza and a ceasefire is Hamas”, calling Israel’s proposal for a temporary truce and exchange of hostages and prisoners “extraordinarily generous”.

Palestinian children in Rafah on Wednesday carry water containers past a house damaged in an Israeli strike. Photo: Reuters

‘At death’s door’

Diplomatic efforts have now turned to constraining the scale of civilian casualties in Rafah, where more than 1.2 million Palestinian refugees – most of Gaza’s population – are thought to be encamped with minimal access to shelter, food, water and healthcare.

“Any ground invasion there would deal a devastating blow to relief efforts – and could put an already fragile humanitarian operation at death’s door”, said Jens Laerke, deputy spokesman of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

The hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians sheltering in Rafah “are already struggling to survive as it is,” he told This Week In Asia. “They have little to eat, little access to medical care, nowhere to sleep, and nowhere safe to go.”

Yet domestic politics are as much a factor as the looming humanitarian disaster for the governments involved in the negotiations. Egypt worries a Rafah assault would cause refugees to flood across its border with Gaza, which alongside mass civilian deaths could inflame public anger and destabilise its already unpopular authoritarian government. Neighbouring Jordan shares similar concerns.

Pro-Palestinian protesters at Ohio State University in the US display a sign depicting Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with blood on their hands on Wednesday. Photo: Getty Images via AFP
Biden’s chances of re-election later this year have also been undermined by the conflict, with a recent CNN poll finding 71 per cent of respondents disapproving of his handling of the war in Gaza – including a majority of those who identified as supporters of the president’s own party.
Foreign policy issues rarely dictate the outcome of US presidential elections, but the Middle Eastern conflict has increasingly become a free-speech issue, especially with the passage of a bill on Wednesday by the US House of Representatives that critics say would equate criticism of Israel with antisemitism.
University administrators have come under intense pressure to ban on-campus protests against the war, leading to a number of police crackdowns at US colleges in recent days.

This is despite the protests having the support of a number of Jewish faculty members and Jewish advocacy groups such as Jewish Voice for Peace.

Children are seen at a camp housing displaced Palestinians in Rafah at sunset on Tuesday. More than 1.2 million refugees are thought to be hemmed into the southernmost part of the Gaza Strip. Photo: AFP

Still, US political commentator Hussein Ibish, whose research focuses on Palestinian statehood, told This Week In Asia that American public opinion was “less influenced by protest actions than by media coverage of the conflict and the suffering of people of Gaza”, which he said had started to make a “considerable impact on Israel’s reputation”.

Mass civilian deaths from an invasion of Rafah could have a “huge impact”, he said, because there is “considerable attention on the part of a minority of Americans” – most of them Democratic voters or left of centre political activists.

“Therefore, any additional massacre in Gaza that implicates the US or the Biden administration, as it inevitably would, will cause a sensation among a subsection of Americans that Joe Biden needs to keep on the side for the election,” Ibish said.

Police deployed on US campuses as Gaza war protest unrest simmers

With the wider American public, it could also have an outsize impact, “because there is already considerable repulsion and horror at Israel’s war of vengeance in Gaza”, he said.

More than 34,000 people have been killed in Gaza since the war began, according to the Hamas-run enclave’s health authorities.

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