I AM not here to save Hal Steinbrenner money.
The Yankees’ obsession with the luxury tax motivated a series of bad moves, including stretching the contracts of Aaron Hicks and DJ LeMahieu to lower the annual value. The Yanks should have just signed those players for more per year for the period they actually wanted them, paid the additional tax and incurred draft penalties, because it isn’t exactly as though they have drafted well anyway.
Instead, they will be paying Hicks for two more years not to play with the team and LeMahieu three more years while praying they will not ultimately have to Hicks him off the roster.
The decision-making has led to a crossroads — if the young players promoted late are good and Michael King really is an impact starter, then the Yankees could contend in 2024. If that does not occur, then no outside influx of star power and, thus, raised payroll will immediately fix the Yankees.
It is why in Part 1 of this series I recommended that as badly as the Yankees need lefty impact that they not pursue Cody Bellinger or Shohei Ohtani in free agency or Juan Soto in a trade. Not to save Steinbrenner’s money. But because this team is not one savior away.
To sign Ohtani (likely $400 million-plus, possibly $500 million-plus) would mean Steinbrenner having to eat the last $98 million of Giancarlo Stanton — you can’t have two DH-only players. I don’t think Steinbrenner will eat that money and pay Ohtani. Soto is a free agent in a year and the Yankees, as currently constructed, should not be investing 4-5 more prospects plus a $450 million-ish contract to keep him out of the market after next season.
As for Bellinger, he falls into the Carlos Rodon peril zone. If you were asked before Rodon signed a six-year, $162 million pact what are the chances the Yankees will be happy they did this at the conclusion, would it have even been 50-50? Forty percent? Twenty-five? I suspect Bellinger gets in the eight years at around $240 million. Play it now: Is it even 50-50 that a team will reach the end of that deal happy it did this?
Before answering, consider: Bellinger is healthy and reworked his swing, but 10 months ago the Dodgers non-tendered him. So not long ago a well-run organization gave up on a former MVP who even in bad times brought high-end defense and baserunning.
Only a team that thinks it is a championship contender should incur that type of risk. The Yankees do not clearly reside in that category. They have been chasing the title with the one more player (like Rodon) theory for years. Time to get off of that boat until they prove they really are a title contender.
Again, this is not about saving Steinbrenner money. They will still have a sizeable payroll next season because, in part, I think they should use their money to land a starting pitcher and two lefty bats. The one definite is Steinbrenner should win a one-year bidding war for Kevin Kiermaier. If Kiermaier gets offered $10 million elsewhere, bid $11 million; if it is $12 million, bid $13 million.
Kiermaier is the better version of Harrison Bader. Better defensively even in his age-34 season. A lefty hitter (.744 OPS vs. righties despite just going 0-for-9 in the three-game series against the Yankees). High energy. High baseball IQ. He needs to be protected against lefties (though he is no automatic out) and overuse. He is a winning player and the Yanks need more of that.
As for the second lefty bat, this would be my priority list:
1. Bryson Stott: Before Phillies fans go nuts, I assume it is close to zero that Philadelphia would deal him. But Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is a now executive, and can Philadelphia be helped in multiple spots for 2024 with one move — a now second base replacement (Torres) plus a deepening of the rotation (Nestor Cortes or Clarke Schmidt) plus, say, adding a reliever to help with the pen?
I bet the Yankees would think that is an overpay, even more so if the Phillies wanted the upside and control of Oswald Peraza to play second. The Yankees should remember the idea is not to win the trade as much as win the roster — make deals that make sense for a group that fits together well in the way the Yanks have not for years. Stott is what the Yankees need — a lefty hitter, strong defender and excellent baserunner who has already played in a lot of big games. He turns 26 next month. He is not a star. But he is a winning player. It is why I don’t think the Phillies would even consider moving him. But I’d sure try to tempt them.
2. Brendan Donovan: A trade-deadline target before needing flexor tendon surgery. He last played on July 29. He could have kept DHing, but wanted to be ready for spring training. Still, there would have to be a deep medical dive to make sure about his health. If he proves sound, Donovan is a Swiss Army Knife. He won the multi-position NL Gold Glove in 2022. He doesn’t swing and miss much. He might hit .280 with 20 homers and play all over with energy. The Cardinals crave pitching. Do they think Cortes is healthy and could help? Do they think Rodon away from New York returns to a top-of-the-rotation piece? Do they think now that Schmidt has shown durability/steadiness, there is No. 3 starter upside?
3. CJ Abrams: Like the Phillies with Stott, I am not sure the Nationals would talk about Abrams. But there are real questions if he can stay at shortstop. So if the Yankees begin an offer with Peraza (a no-doubt shortstop), is there traction? With the Yankees, Abrams is a second baseman. There is a gamble here. There are rough edges to his game, notably around plate discipline. But the power/speed upside is intoxicating. At Yankee Stadium, a 30-30 season would be in play.
4. Jeimer Candelario: I was going to include Jeff McNeil and the $43.75 million for the next three years before it was revealed that he has a partial tear of his left UCL. He might be good to go next year, but the Yankees already would be taking a risk on his age (32 next April), quirkiness and that he had a down season. But even in that down season McNeil hit .270. Through Thursday, the Yankees had 24 players take at least one at-bat this season. The best average on the team is .270 by Torres.
As for Candelario, he was born in New York, spent his early years here and still has ties that bring him back regularly. He was having a strong year for the Nationals, then the Cubs, before a back injury began to sap him and land him on the IL (he was activated Wednesday).
The defensive metrics at third paint a better picture than those who have had him offer. He has had a good enough season that he could land a three-year deal. On a first-division team, he is a high-end supersub moving between third and first. It’s tempting. But not for more than one year, two at most.
5. Ryan McMahon: He has four years at $56 million left and plays for a franchise that will be the last to know it has no chance to contend in that time. Even if the Rockies decided to move him, McMahon has a 31 percent strikeout rate and his offense is way better at Coors Field. Can you convince me that he would be a better all-around hitter away from the adjustments needed to play home and away as a Rockie? I’d listen. Right now he is a lefty Eugenio Suarez — hit for some power, field really well and strike out too much. But might you get Joey Gallo II — all the strikeouts from a guy who has never played in a meaningful game coming to the intensity of The Bronx.
At this moment, LeMahieu projects to be the third baseman. His second half looked better without being all the way back. But the decline has been enough for him and Stanton that they should not just be handed at-bats next season based on history and salary. Is Aaron Boone (if he returns) the type who would make them earn it? I don’t think so.
Boone also should have been tougher on Torres, who I mentioned as a trade chip. Yet I would not just trade him willy-nilly. He was the Yankees’ most complete hitter this season. Among those who batted 400 times in both 2022 and ’23, only Ronald Acuña Jr. and Bellinger cut their strikeout rate more than Torres’ 7.8 percent (only Luis Robert had his rise more than LeMahieu’s 9.1 percent). Torres’ walk rate also was up. The Yankees are not in position to just expel good hitters after accumulating three or fewer hits in a game 16 times this year.
But the Yankees need to play baseball better, and whether it is carelessness or style over substance, Torres makes too many unforced errors in all phases. He is a free agent after the 2024 season, and if the Yanks can add offense elsewhere, they should see what Torres would elicit from teams that have had interest in the past such as the Mariners, Marlins and others.
With or without Torres, the best way to improve this offense is internally. Anthony Volpe needs to be better. Oswald Cabrera needs to return to looking like a young Marwin Gonzalez. Jasson Dominguez and Austin Wells need to be real. Anthony Rizzo needs to be healthy.
There have been questions about Wells’ defense. He has been fine late in the year. That the Yankees did not play him at first and the corner outfield in the minors to, if nothing else, increase his versatility was a mistake. I suspect he will be paired with Jose Trevino at catcher next year. It will be a loss to the soul of the team to non-tender or trade Kyle Higashioka, but he would be a free agent after the 2024 season and has no minor league options left. He will help a team as a backup. The Yankees can stash Ben Rortvedt in the minors for depth.
As for pitching, it is good to begin with Gerrit Cole. King moved into the rotation on Aug. 24 and accumulated a 1.8 WAR (FanGraphs) in seven starts since. That was second in the majors between the presumptive Cy Young winners, Cole and Blake Snell. Does King have the physicality endure a season as a starter? If so, this has been a top-of-the-rotation audition.
The flip-flop was to put Jhony Brito in the pen, where he has a MLB-high 22 ²/₃ innings since Aug. 24 with a 1.19 ERA. So perhaps, the Yankees also found a replacement for King’s hybrid pen role.
Do you believe that Rodon will be better in Year 2 in New York? That Cortes will find the conditioning and health to return to All-Star form? That Schmidt is, at minimum, a capable back-end starter? Brito and Randy Vasquez showed they can provide depth. And the Yankees like the potential of Chase Hampton, Drew Thorpe and Will Warren (I am assuming the Yankees will non-tender Domingo German).
They should still get a veteran starter. Schmidt would become depth, but depth that will get plenty of opportunities considering the fragility within the group.
If the Yankees win the bidding for Yoshinobu Yamamoto — since he would be a player signed for no fewer than five years — they could more comfortably use starters in the trade market. But, again, should the Yankees even be in the long-contract game right now?
The Yankees’ goal should be to assemble a team good enough to vie for the playoffs without expending too much long-term capital in money or prospects. If they are in it in July 2024, they can then use the farm to fortify. If not, they have not further damaged the near future. So the one-year market is the better way to go for a starter, too.
Frankie Montas and Luis Severino might try to rebuild their value with one-year deals. But there is too much negativity in The Bronx now associated with those players to bring them back.
I think both Hyun-jin Ryu and Kenta Maeda can handle New York and still have the stuff to pitch well in 2024 in their age 37 and 36 seasons, respectively. On the surface, Kyle Gibson (36 next season) had stats that looked like Schmidt’s. But they were worsened by two blowouts against the Mariners. The veteran righty made eight AL East starts with the Orioles — just two against the Yankees’ putrid offense — and had a 3.18 ERA and .217 batting average against. He is a solid pro who would provide no worse than league average competence in the No. 5 spot.
As for the pen, the Yankees will have to figure out a lefty. Wandy Peralta is a free agent. He is unflappable and a terrific teammate, but the Yankees must determine if his stuff was down as the onset of overuse. Beyond Clay Holmes, there is a lot of injury volatility, with Scott Effross and Lou Trivino (if he is tendered a contract) both returning from Tommy John surgery, plus Ian Hamilton, Tommy Kahnle and Jonathan Loaisiga.
The Yankees have proven adept at finding quality relief at the margins, so this might not be an area they will spend, but if I were to guess at what they might like from the not overly expensive free-agent bin, there are Ryan Brasier and Luke Jackson.