SAN JOSE — New research suggests downtown San Jose has posted one of the nation’s strongest rebounds from coronavirus-spawned economic maladies, offering hope the city’s urban core can escape a “doom-loop” scenario.
The report from University of Toronto researchers measured mobile phone activity in urban cores across North America to determine to what extent downtown districts are experiencing rebounds in their post-coronavirus activity and visits.
Downtown San Jose is now experiencing 96% of the visits to the city’s urban core that occurred in 2019, the final year before state and local government agencies imposed wide-ranging business shutdowns to combat the spread of the coronavirus, a new report from the Toronto experts has determined.
How high does downtown San Jose’s 96% activity level rank? The 96% mark represents the third-highest activity level in North America, trailing only the 103% activity level for Las Vegas and the 97% mark posted in downtown El Paso, Texas, according to an Oct. 16 update from the University of Toronto academics.
The researchers measured the activity in 66 downtown districts in North America, consisting of 55 in the United States and 11 in Canada.
“San Jose is not just recovering from the pandemic, we are rising up and reaffirming our commitment to solving the problems that all big cities face,” San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan said in comments emailed to this news organization that responded to the newly released research.
The researchers surveyed eight downtown districts in California, including downtown Oakland, which was at 74% of its pre-COVID mobile device activity and downtown San Francisco, which was only at 67% of its pre-coronavirus mobile phone activity.
Here are the activity levels for the other California downtown areas included in the university survey: Bakersfield was at 95%, Los Angeles at 83%, San Diego 80%, Fresno at 74% and Sacramento at 66%.
As for the other downtown areas measured in the Pacific region, Honolulu was at 76%, Portland at 61% and Seattle at 57%.
Some experts warn that political and business leaders may have to scramble to ensure their downtown districts can avoid the sort of “doom loop” scenario that appears to be facing San Francisco.
A “doom-loop” is a cycle that began with the business shutdowns that chased away office workers who began doing their jobs from home or other remote locations, keeping downtown San Francisco nearly empty, which then caused businesses to struggle and eventually close. The widening departures of shops, restaurants and nightclubs make San Francisco even less appealing.
Some experts believe that “doom-loop” scenarios present a real hazard, but researchers also point out that downtown districts have faced other such extinction events in the past.
“As we experience yet another rhetorical onslaught predicting the decline of cities and their downtowns, it is important to remember that cities have faced their share of crises before,” Brookings Institution researchers Tracey Hadden Loh and Hannah Love wrote in a March 2023 report entitled “Breaking the Urban Doom Loop.”
The Brookings researchers noted that American downtown districts have survived a string of seemingly fatal calamities such as suburbanization, white flight, rising crime in urban centers during the 1990s, and New York City’s crisis in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Yet American downtowns have survived all of these woes.
The post-COVID economic ailments are just the latest in the list of forbidding events to confront American urban centers, the researchers note.
“As the heart of our nation’s economy, downtowns have the unique potential and imperative to act boldly and inclusively to rebuild stronger than before,” the Brookings researchers stated in the conclusion to their report.
For San Jose, Mayor Mahan is calling on city residents, business leaders and local government officials to embrace a “back to basics” approach that focuses on addressing the South Bay city’s crime, homelessness, blight and economic vibrancy challenges.
“It is this commitment to keeping our neighbors safe, ending street homelessness, and cleaning up our city that has allowed us to bounce back faster than any other city in the state,” Mahan said.