Joey Votto Earned Every Dollar Of His Contract

With free agency upon us, Cincinnati Reds declined to exercise their $20 million option on favorite son – Joseph Daniel Votto. Now that Votto is a free agent, and now that Votto he has affirmed that we would like to continue to play, there are really only two possibilities: (1) Votto wears a different uniform for the first time in his MLB career; or (2) he retires. While there is a chance that Votto signs some form of lifetime agreement with the Reds (ala Albert Pujols), insofar as the team claimed that lack of playing time was the impetus for their cutting ties, that doesn’t seem a likely outcome.

This is the second in a three-part series of recently expired MLB contracts. And unlike the analysis for Miguel Cabrera, it is safe to say that Votto’s recently-expired deal with Cincinnati was a home run – for both the player and the organization.

The Deal

In 2012, Votto signed a 10-year, $225 million contract extension with the Reds, which kicked in for the 2014 season. It is difficult to claim the Votto is the greatest first basemen to ever play in Cincinnati, with Ted Kluszewski and Pete Rose in the conversation, but he may be the most beloved. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean that the deal made sense, or dollars.

Votto is a six-time All-Star, Gold Glove Winner, and was the 2010 MVP. Since the extension kicked in, Votto finished second (2017) and third (2015) in MVP voting, but did not accomplish a whole lot more from a black-ink/league-leading perspective. For his career, Votto has a 144 OPS+, and has accumulated 64.4 bWAR. What is curious is that Votto’s career bWar is just under Miguel Cabrera’s (67.3), while his career OPS+ is four points higher, but Cabrera is seen as the surefire first-ballot Hall of Famer, and there is question in the baseball world about Votto’s Hall worthiness.

In the first year of the new deal, Votto injured his left distal quadriceps, had two different stints on the injured list, and played in only 62 games. He came back with a vengeance in 2015, posting a 1.000 OPS, with 171 hits and 29 home runs. 2016 through 2018 were vintage Votto seasons, as he led the league in on base percentage each year, and – as referenced above – finished second in MVP voting in 2017. The rest of the deal was a bit of a roller coaster, with only 2021 being a stand-out (36 home runs, 99 RBI, .938 OPS, 3.7 bWAR), and the last two years combining for -0.4 bWAR. So, was Votto worth the $225 million that the small-market Reds paid him?

It is now time to complete the post hoc analysis, taking into consideration the same varied metrics as we did with Cabrera.

bWAR

As has previously been reported, according to FanGraphs, between 2018 and 2022, the averagerate for each unit of bWAR was roughly $8.1 million. Between 2014 and 2023, Votto accrued 30.1 bWAR (by way of comparison, during that same period, Mike Trout had 65.3 bWAR, and Mookie Betts had 64.6). Using the above calculation, Votto was worth $243.81 million over those 10 years, slightly above the $225 million he was paid.

Attendance

As stated above, the Queen City embraced Votto, and loved having him on their team. How often did they come out to see him? If the seven years before the extension, the Reds averaged 2.14 million fans (all with Votto on the squad). In the nine years after (there were no fans in 2020), the team averaged 1.89 million, a 12% reduction.

However, it is hard to pin all of that fall-off on Votto, as the team only had a winning record in three of those seasons (one of which was 2020, when no fans could witness their 31-29 campaign), averaging less the 72 wins/year (again, skipping 2020), and only making the playoffs once (again, in 2020). An argument could be made that in the face of a poor team and poor ownership, having Votto on the roster may have kept this decline to only 12%.

Team Valuation

If the Castellini family desires to improve their family asset and thus increase their team’s value, they have done an extremely poor job – and it does not that seem that any amount of Joey Votto’s can solve that problem. From 2014 to 2023, the Reds nearly doubled in value, which seems like a good thing. But, the numbers reflect that the team went from a valuation of $600 million to $1.19 billion, which – as the chart below reflects – is only the second largest increase for all MLB clubs during that same time period. Again, this is not Votto’s fault, but it does beg the question about how much less this team’s value would have increased if the Reds had simply allowed Votto to walk when his original deal expired at the end of 2013.

Vibes

For anyone who follows baseball, the Joey Votto vibes are unmistakable and unquestionable. Votto, for much of his career, was a cipher, asking base runners pithy questions and responding to reporters with erudite answers. And for years he was guarded. But that introversion belied his incredible charitable work, as well as his connection to the fans of Cincinnati, and the baseball community at large.

In 2013, Votto created the Joey Votto Foundation, aimed to support victims of PTSD. However, in 2014, in keeping with his inclination to remain private, Votto closed the foundation, after helping more than 100 veterans. In a letter to supporters, he remained steadfast in his commitment to charitable work in the Cincinnati community.

It is quite clear that Votto continued to give back, as in both 2021 and 2022, he was the Reds’ nominee for the Roberto Clemente Award, which recognizes the player who demonstrates “extraordinary character, community involvement, philanthropy, and positive contributions, both on and off the field.” As of late, Votto spends a lot of time at the Reds’ Urban Youth Academy, home to the 33,000 square foot, state-of-the-art Joey Votto Training Center.

But even more than his charitable work is the connection with the fans. Over the past few years, Votto has made Tik Tok videos with a young fan in Arizona, given cleats to a young fan in Los Angeles, apologized for being an in-game jerk to a fan in Cincinnati, apologized to a young fan in San Diego for getting ejected and thus depriving her of watching him play, and then apologized to all Cincinnati fans for getting ejected in what was potentially his last game in a Reds uniform.

Votto, an ambassador for the team and the game, is beloved in every park he plays.

After Votto played his last game in Cincinnati – in 2023 or forevermore – he gave an on-field interview wherein he told the crowd that their support for him nearly brought him to tears. And then, in the interview room, discussing what the crowd’s response to him meant, Votto stated how happy it made him, and how humbled he was by the response. He said, “I know so many people in the crowd; so many; I’ve crossed paths with maybe a majority of the crowd, whether through a Fanfest, signing autographs, seeing them in the stands, seeing them on the streets; I’m in this community in lots of different ways, and so I’m familiar with a lot of different people in the stands…”

How many professional athletes can say the same, and mean it, and not be ridiculed as a fake or a phony?

And finally, upon learning that the Reds declined his option, Votto took time out from his post-season vacation to record a short video for his fans.

The vibes Joey Votto brought to southwestern Ohio may not equal $225 million; but that is only because they are unquantifiable.

Conclusion

On a pure performance on the field basis, the Joey Votto contract extension lived up to its financial hype. Throw in doubling of franchise value and a city’s love affair with the ballplayer, and this may turn out to be one of the better contracts a small-market organization ever signed.