After beginning a four-game homestand with an impressive 112-107 victory over Oklahoma City, the Los Angeles Lakers will try to win back-to-back games for the first time in nearly six weeks.
It’s been one step forward followed by one step back for a Los Angeles team clinging to the 10th and final spot for the playoff play-in tournament.
Given their upcoming home games, the Lakers stand a decent chance to string some wins together.
It’s worth noting they’re 14-7 at home vs. 6-14 on the road.
Los Angeles will host Dallas on Wednesday night.
The Mavericks could welcome Luka Doncic back from an ankle injury. Doncic was upgraded to questionable and will be a game-time decision.
However, it didn’t take long for the market to weigh in, pushing this total from 239.5 to 244 points.
While I disagree with the move on the total, I’ll share an interesting trend involving the over in Lakers games, which gives me enough reason to pause.
As a result, I plan to switch my focus and target a player prop in this matchup.
Mavericks analysis
The Mavericks have compiled an impressive 24-17 record, with their two best players, Doncic and Kyrie Irving, missing a combined 25 games.
They made a concerted effort to improve their bench during the offseason to withstand injuries to their two stars, and it appears to be paying dividends.
One player who’s been a consistent performer off the bench is Tim Hardaway Jr. The 11-year pro has upped his scoring from last year (14.4 to 18.3 points) despite averaging slightly fewer minutes per game (29.7 vs. 30.3).
He is coming off a 41-point effort on Monday night against the Pelicans.
While no one would doubt Doncic’s importance to his team, Hardaway can play a more prominent role in Dallas’ offense.
One thing the Mavericks are doing a much better job of is sharing the basketball.
They’re averaging 25.2 assists per game compared to 22.9 last season.
They’re playing faster in all facets of the game, and their increase in assists has catapulted them from last in fastbreak points to eighth, according to TeamRankings.
However, while the Mavericks boast a top-10 offensive efficiency rating with 117.3 points per 100 possessions, that number drops to 111.1 when they’re on the road.
Hence, given the Lakers’ form at home, I’d expect the Mavericks to face a bit more resistance in this contest.
Lakers analysis
There’s a strong link between the Lakers’ success at home and their defense. Los Angeles allows 106.8 points per 100 possessions in this spot vs. 113.9 points per 100 possessions on the road.
Only five teams in the league have a better defensive efficiency rating on their home court than the Lakers, who are simply giving a better nightly effort in front of their home crowd.
If you look at their contested shots on 3-pointers, the Lakers rank seventh in this category at home vs. 14th on the road.
Los Angeles must be alert on the perimeter against a Mavericks team that ranks second in 3-point field goals (15.2 per game) and attempts (41.1 per game).
The Lakers can afford to play more aggressively at home, where they will likely get a favorable whistle. Los Angeles limits opponents to a league-best 18.5 free throw attempts per game at home.
We’ve seen opposing teams like the Raptors enter Crypto.com Arena and have a go at the referees for not getting the same opportunities at the charity stripe against the Lakers.
Thus, it wouldn’t be surprising if we saw a similar scenario with the Mavericks.
This isn’t a matchup where I’d expect Doncic to operate closer to the basket, where Anthony Davis will be lurking. Doncic is spending more time on the perimeter, as his 3-point attempts are up from 8.2 to 10.4 per game.
Accordingly, we have a logical inverse correlation with his free throw attempts, down from 10.5 to 8.7.
If there’s ever a spot to fade Doncic, this would be it. I’m not sure we’ll get a better opportunity with him on the road and coming off an injury against this Lakers unit.
Mavericks vs. Lakers prediction
(8 p.m. ET, ESPN)
While this increased total might directly reflect Doncic’s possible return, there’s also an interesting trend in play for this matchup.
Savvy bettors are likely aware that Lakers games have alternated between the over and under for 10 straight games.
And with the Lakers’ most recent game finishing under the total, an over Wednesday night would keep this trend active. Instead of trying to predict a reversal, I’d prefer to avoid betting into this market after such a big move.
However, one way to fade the over would be to target an under in the player props market.
Doncic is a great option here because he’s coming back from injury and might not be fully up to speed. It’s also possible he’s on a slight minutes restriction in his first game back.
One prop that jumps out to me is his points + rebounds combo, which BetMGM offers at 41.5 (-125). Even if Doncic goes off for 30 points, I’d expect him to have fewer rebounding opportunities.
Betting on the NBA?
He’s registered six rebounds in four straight games and will face a Lakers team that ranks 12th in rebounding at home.
Be sure to shop around for the best number, as some sportsbooks are starting to adjust this prop down to 40.5.
Pick: Luka Doncic under 41.5 points + rebounds (-125 at BetMGM)