Russian troops “will likely make significant tactical gains in the coming weeks” while Kyiv awaits badly needed weaponry from the US, a Washington-based think tank said.
In its latest operational assessment, the Institute for the Study of War said that Moscow’s forces have opportunities to push forward around Avdiivka, the eastern city they took in late February after a gruelling, months-long fight, and threaten nearby Chasiv Yar.
Its capture would give Russia control of a hilltop from which it can attack other key cities forming the backbone of Ukraine’s eastern defences.
Despite this, the think tank assessed that neither of these efforts by Moscow are likely to cause Kyiv’s defensive lines to collapse “in the near term”.
US President Joe Biden promised on Wednesday that US weapons shipments would begin making their way into Ukraine within hours, as he signed into law a US$95 billion measure – US$61 billion of which was allocated for Ukraine – that also included assistance for Israel, Taiwan and other global hotspots.
The announcement marked an end to the long, painful battle with Republicans in Congress over urgently needed assistance for Ukraine.
The Russian Defence Ministry on Sunday confirmed that Moscow’s troops had taken a village about 15km (9 miles) north of Avdiivka, days after the war institute reported on its likely capture early on Thursday.
That day’s assessment described Moscow’s gains as “relatively quick but still relatively marginal”, adding that Russian troops had advanced by no more than 5km (3 miles) over the previous week.
Also Sunday, Russian drones struck the Black Sea city of Mykolaiv, setting a hotel ablaze and damaging energy infrastructure, Ukrainian officials said.
Vitaliy Kim, the governor of Ukraine’s southern Mykolaiv province, said that Russian drones “seriously damaged” a hotel in its namesake capital, sparking a fire that was later extinguished. Kim also reported that the strike damaged heat-generating infrastructure in the city. He said there were no casualties.
Russian state agency RIA reported that the strike on Mykolaiv targeted a shipyard where naval drones are assembled, as well as a hotel housing “English-speaking mercenaries” who have fought for Kyiv.
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The RIA report cited Sergei Lebedev, described as a coordinator of local pro-Moscow guerillas. His comments could not be independently verified.
Meanwhile, the Russian Defence Ministry said that 17 Ukrainian drones were downed overnight over four regions in the country’s southwest. Three drones were intercepted near an oil depot in Lyudinovo, an industrial town about 230km (143 miles) north of the Ukrainian border, Governor Vladislav Shapsha said.
One of the Ukrainian drones damaged communications infrastructure in Russia’s southern Belgorod province, which borders Ukraine, Governor Vyachaslav Gladkov said later on Sunday. There were no immediate reports of casualties.
The Russian Defence Ministry claimed on Sunday that its forces had destroyed ammunition depots and military equipment housed at three airports across Ukraine, including assault drones stored at Kamyanka Airfield in the country’s east.
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The ministry’s online update said the attacks took place over the last 24 hours. There was no immediate comment from Kyiv.
Russian shelling on Saturday and overnight wounded at least seven civilians across Ukraine, according to Ukrainian officials.
A 36-year-old woman was pulled alive from the rubble after Russian shells on Sunday morning destroyed her home in the northeastern Kharkiv region, the local administration reported.
Her 52-year-old neighbour was also rushed to a hospital with a stomach wound, the administration said.