Utah, the defending champion, was not picked to win the Pac-12 title in the preseason media poll released Thursday.
Nor was the school that has won two of the past four conference crowns, Oregon.
Or Washington, the hottest team in the conference at the end of 2022.
Instead, USC was the pick to win the 2023 title (in the school’s final year in the conference, no less).
Although the Trojans’ schedule is rugged — unlike last year, it includes Oregon and Washington — the bright outlook is easily justified with returnees at vital positions, including quarterback Caleb Williams, and a defensive line fortified through the transfer portal.
The Trojans received 25 of the 36 first-place votes and topped the media poll with 413 points, decisively ahead of Washington (367), Utah (359) and Oregon (340).
The limited separation between second and fourth place reflects what should be a stellar year for the conference on the field.
The Utes have won back-to-back Pac-12 titles, return their starting quarterback (Cam Rising) and possess arguably the best head coach (Kyle Whittingham) and team culture in the conference.
The Ducks have a series of stacked recruiting classes, return their quarterback (Bo Nix) and have averaged more than 10 wins per season over the past four years (2020 excluded).
Any other year, Utah and Oregon would be easy picks for second place, if not first.
But 2023 could be the best Pac-12 season since 2014, when the conference sent one team to the playoff (Oregon), another to the Fiesta Bowl (Arizona) and had six in the final Associated Press top-25 poll.
Put another way: Oregon State, which won 10 games last season, blitzed Florida in the Las Vegas Bowl and landed one of the most coveted transfers on the market, former Clemson quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, was picked fifth.
All in all, the media poll provides a reasonable outlook on the season based on current rosters.
UCLA rounded out the top half but was well behind the Beavers.
Washington State, which has qualified for a bowl berth for seven consecutive seasons (excluding 2020), was picked seventh.
Arizona, which hasn’t reached the postseason since 2017, was slotted eighth entering a critical third year under coach Jedd Fisch.
The bottom four, in order, were Cal, ASU, Colorado and Stanford.
Although it’s easy to focus on the favorites, the cellar dwellers could have a significant impact on the trajectory of the season.
In a zero-sum game, success at the top depends on weakness at the bottom.
Last year, the conference produced four teams with 7-2 records (or better) in conference play, in part because there were four teams with 2-7 records (or worse).
Parity, a staple of Pac-12 football for years, took a three-month vacation.
If the bottom tier is better than expected in 2023 — and three of those teams (Colorado, ASU and Stanford) have new head coaches — the top might struggle to meet expectations.
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